高盛-美国财政担忧：这次会不一样吗？（英）

ISSUE 140 | June 12, 2025 | 4:00 PM EDTInvestors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.US fiscal concerns have surged on the back of the Trump Administration’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”, which has helped fuel a sharp rise in long-dated bond yields. But such concerns are nothing new, so is this time really different? We ask three economy-watchers long concerned about the US fiscal trajectory: Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio, Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff, and historian Sir Niall Ferguson. All three believe the answer is “yes” and make their case for why they think a crisis lies ahead and what it might look like. GS’ Alec Phillips is also worried over the longer term but notes that tariff revenues should offset the deficit impacts of the fiscal package over the next decade. We also look at other places that have long elicited fiscal concern—the European periphery, Asian debt giants Japan and China, and EMs—and see fewer—but not no—reasons to worry. Finally, we assess the market impacts of these shifting fiscal dynamics, concluding that US long-end rates will likely remain high, and the Dollar should weaken further.“ INTERVIEWS WITH: Ray Dalio, Founder, Bridgewater Associates Kenneth Rogoff, Professor at Harvard University, former Chief Economist, International Monetary Fund Sir Niall Ferguson, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution at Stanford University, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University NOT GETTING WORSE IS NOT GOOD ENOUGH Alec Phillips, GS Economics Research Q&A: MARKETS, TARIFFS, AND FISCAL FEARS Kamakshya Trivedi, GS Markets Research EUROPE: SHIFTING FISCAL FOCUS Filippo Taddei, James Moberly, and Alexandre Stott, GS European Economics Research ASIA’S BIG (DOMESTIC) DEBT BOOMS Andrew Tilton, GS Asia Economics Research EM DEBT: NO CRISIS, BUT COSTLY Alberto Ramos, GS LatAm Economics Research EM DEBT: FOCUS ON EXTERNAL BALANCES Kevin Daly, GS CEEMEA Economics Research WHAT’S INSIDEWe should be very worried as all the previously mentioned conditions and my indicators that reflect them point toward an impending crisis. - Ray DalioHigher rates are the primary reason the fiscal outlook is so concerning. If rates were to fall sharply, I would become far less worried. - Kenneth RogoffHistory is ripe with examples of superpowers that have spent more on debt service than defense and subsequently were no longer super or powerful. That’s exactly the position the US is in today. - Sir Niall Ferguson “Allison Nathan | allison.nathan@gs.com Jenny Grimberg | jenny.grimberg@gs.com Ashley Rhodes | ashley.rhodes@gs.com US FISCAL WORRIES: IS THIS TIME DIFFERENT?...AND MORENote: The following is a redacted version of the original report published June 12, 2025 [28 pgs]. hEl Goldman Sachs Global