欧洲央行-法案对谁收费：货币财政刺激的再分配后果（英）

Working Paper Series For whom the bill tolls: redistributive consequences of a monetary-fiscal stimulus Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Julia Jabłońska, Marcin Kolasa, Krzysztof Makarski Disclaimer: This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. No 2998 AbstractDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, governments in the euro area sharply increased spending while theEuropean Central Bank eased financing conditions. We use this episode to assess how such a concertedmonetary-fiscal stimulus redistributes welfare between various age cohorts. Our assessment involves notonly the income side of household balance sheets (mainly direct effects of transfers) but also the moreobscure financing side that, to a substantial degree, occurred via indirect effects (with a prominentrole of the inflation tax).Using a quantitative life-cycle model, and assuming that the deficit waspartly unfunded by future taxes, we document that young households benefited from the stimulus, whilemiddle-aged and older agents mainly paid the bill. Crucially, most welfare redistribution was due toindirect effects related to macroeconomic adjustment that resulted from the stimulus. As a consequence,even though all age cohorts received significant transfers, the welfare of some actually decreased.JEL: E31, E51, E52, H5, J11Keywords: COVID-19; Fiscal expansion, Monetary policy, RedistributionECB Working Paper Series No 29981Non-technical summaryThe unexpected onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 has left fiscal authorities worldwidegrappling with soaring expenses and plummeting revenues. In the euro area these developmentstranslated into fiscal deficits equivalent to 7% and 5.2% of GDP in 2020 and 2021, respectively.The fiscal expansion was concomitant with a deep monetary easing. With interest rates close tothe effective lower bound (ELB), this was implemented by a new round of quantitative easing. Thisexpansionary policy mix facilitated the financing of essential expenditures and upheld economicstability. Nonetheless, it also contributed to an increase in inflation.We use this episode to analyze the implications of such an extensive monetary and fiscal stimulusfor the redistribution of welfare among different age groups. Fiscal expenditures allocated incometo various segments of the population in a relatively transparent manner, with transfers and expen-ditures well-documented in Eurostat statistics. What remains less transparent, yet arguably moreintriguing, is the indirect redistribution resulting from macroeconomic adjustments. By averting aneconomic downturn, the monetary and fiscal stimulus bolstered the incomes of both workers andcapital owners. However, the unforeseen inflation adversely affected holders of nominal assets suchas cash and bonds. Given that official taxes have not been raised, these groups are presumed tohave implicitly financed a sig