硅谷银行-2024年第四季度经济报告（英）

4th Quarter 2024SVB Asset Management views on economic and market factors affecting global markets and business healthOverviewDomestic EconomyForeign ExchangeCentral Banks and Monetary PolicyCorporate Bond MarketMarkets and Performance•September’s widely anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting concluded with a 50-basis point (bps) rate cut and an updated, more “dovish” outlook for the path of future rate cuts.•The FOMC shifted its characterization of both the labor market (“job gains have slowed”) and inflation (“made further progress”), overall suggesting a more balanced approach to the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate compared to its prior focus on price stability.•The FOMC’s “dot plot” of future rate expectations was revised to reflect further rate cuts through both the remainder of this year and 2025.•Consumers have slowed down their spending in the current rate and inflation environment. More Americans are refinancing their homes due to falling mortgage rates.QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT | #1024-0139TD-0930253Narrower interest rate differentials will weigh on the USD.The interest rate advantage of the USD vs. developed economy currencies is projected to narrow or disappear altogether, and is expected to put downward pressure on the USD.The prospect of lower rates in 2024 boosts fixed income performance.The shift in market expectations for interest rates helped government bonds perform strongly. Credit performance also benefitted, with both investment-grade (IG) and high-yield (HY) credit spreads ending Q3 2024 marginally tighter.GDP continues to point to the strength of the economy.Q2 2024 gross domestic product (GDP) was reported at 3.0%, well above the market consensus of 2.0%, indicating the health of the U.S’s overall economy.The FOMC set forth a more aggressive path of policy easing going forward.The committee stated that risks to achieving employment and inflation goals are “roughly in balance.” However, Fed Chairman Powell stressed that “no one should look at 50 bps as the new pace.” The FOMC reduced the fed funds rate by 50 bps at its September meeting.The committee revised the target range for the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 4.75%-5.00% in its first rate cut in over four years.Inflation has been on the decline.Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) — the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator — rose 2.7% year-over-year (YoY) in August 2024, which is down from 3.8% in August 2023.QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT | #1024-0139TD-0930255Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg and SVB Asset Management. Data as of 10/07/2024.In Q3 2024, the average number of jobs grew by approximately 186,000 per month. The unemployment rate rose then fell, from 4.1% at the end of June to 4.3% in July and back to 4.1% at the end of September. As measured in August, there continue to be more jobs available (~8.0 million) than unemployed Americans (~7.1 million). The number of unemployed Americans dipped in September to ~6.8