美联储-家庭过度储蓄与货币政策传导（英）

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemInternational Finance Discussion PapersISSN 1073-2500 (Print)ISSN 2767-4509 (Online)Number 1397October 2024Household Excess Savings and the Transmission of Monetary PolicyThiago R.T. Ferreira, Nils Gornemann, Julio L. OrtizPlease cite this paper as:Ferreira,Thiago R.T.,Nils Gornemann,Julio L. Ortiz (2024).“Household Ex-cess Savings and the Transmission of Monetary Policy,” International Finance Discus-sion Papers 1397.Washington:Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2024.1397.NOTE: International Finance Discussion Papers (IFDPs) are preliminary materials circulated to stimu-late discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors anddo not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or the Board of Governors. Referencesin publications to the International Finance Discussion Papers Series (other than acknowledgement) shouldbe cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers. Recent IFDPs are availableon the Web at www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/. This paper can be downloaded without charge from theSocial Science Research Network electronic library at www.ssrn.com.Household Excess Savings and theTransmission of Monetary Policy∗Thiago R.T. Ferreira†Nils Gornemann‡Julio L. Ortiz§October 8, 2024AbstractHousehold savings rose above trend in many developed countries after the onsetof COVID-19. Given its link to aggregate consumption, the presence of these “ex-cess savings” has raised questions about their implications for the transmission ofmonetary policy. Using a panel of euro-area economies and high-frequency mone-tary policy shocks, we document that household excess savings dampen the effects ofmonetary policy on economic activity and inflation, especially during the pandemicperiod. To rationalize our empirical findings, we build a New Keynesian model inwhich households use savings to self-insure against counter-cyclical unemploymentand consumption risk.Key Words: Monetary Policy, Excess Savings, Precautionary Savings, ConsumptionRisk, UnemploymentJEL Classification: E12, E21, E24, E31, E52.∗We are grateful to Mitch Lott for outstanding research assistance. We also thank Matteo Iacoviello,Phillip Jefferson, Steven Ongena, Christopher Waller, and presentation attendees at the Federal ReserveBoard and the 2024 IJCB conference for their comments and suggestions. The views expressed in thispaper are solely those of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Boardof Governors of the Federal Reserve System or of any other person associated with the Federal ReserveSystem.†Federal Reserve Board, International Finance Division; Washington, DC, 20551, USA; Email address:thiago.r.teixeiraferreira@frb.gov.‡Federal Reserve Board, International Finance Division; Washington, DC, 20551, USA; Email address:nils.m.gornemann@frb.gov.§Federal Reserve Board, Inter