世界银行-发展中国家的出口导向型产业政策：有办法挑选赢家吗？（英）

Policy Research Working Paper10902Export-Led Industrial Policy for Developing CountriesIs There a Way to Pick Winners? Tristan ReedDevelopment Economics Development Research GroupSeptember 2024 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 10902Industrial policy prioritizes growth in specific sectors. Yet there is little agreement about how to target sectors in prac-tice, and many argue that governments cannot pick winners. This essay observes that governments can and do identify tradable sectors where public inputs accelerate growth and generate economic benefits. These strategic sectors are: (i) those that are relatively more productive, and (ii) those that are relatively less productive but require technology like the country’s existing technology and have rapidly grow-ing markets and limited international competition. Since developing countries are productive in fewer sectors and have less technology, targeting can be more valuable for them. Export promotion agencies are institutions that have demonstrated effectiveness in coordinating public inputs to grow these sectors. Compared to protectionism, this alternative approach to ‘industrial policy’ is cheaper, less susceptible to capture by unproductive firms, and permissi-ble under the rules of international trade agreements. Many countries’ development strategies adopt this approach.This paper is a product of the Development Research Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The author may be contacted at treed@worldbank.org. Export-Led Industrial Policy for Developing Countries: Is There a Way to Pick Winners? Tristan Reed Tristan Reed is an Economist, Development Research Group, World Bank, Washington, DC. His email address is TReed@worldbank.org. JEL Codes: F13, L52, O19 Keywords: Industrial Policy, Export Promotion, Sector Targeting, Comparative Advantage, Competitive Advantage, Product Space, Trade Agreements 2 Developing countries