世界银行-冲突与企业绩效：全球视野（英）

Policy Research Working Paper10898Conflict and Firms’ PerformanceA Global ViewEmanuele BrancatiMichele Di MaioRoberta GattiAsif M. IslamMiddle East and North Africa RegionOffice of the Chief EconomistSeptember 2024 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 10898This study provides a global analysis of the effect of conflict exposure on firms’ performance, combining geolocalized longitudinal firm-level data and information on political violence events from 91 countries between 2006 and 2019. Higher conflict exposure does not affect firm profits, as it reduces both sales and total costs. Sales decline due to the conflict-induced reduction in the availability of production inputs and the increase in informal competition. Firms react to lower sales by reducing labor costs and expenditure on other production inputs. The effect of conflict is more det-rimental for firms in countries with low-quality bureaucracy and that are initially at peace.This paper is a product of the Office of the Chief Economist, Middle East and North Africa Region. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at aislam@worldbank.org. Conflict and Firms’ Performance: A Global View* Emanuele Brancatit Michele Di Maio:j Roberta Gatti§ Asif M. Islam1 Keywords: firm, conflict, political violence, intermediate inputs, labor market, mar- ket competition JEL Classification: C23 D22 D74 L20 O12 *This study is exempt from pre-registration because it only uses secondary data. The findings in- terpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. All errors are our own. temanuele.brancati@uniroma1.it Sapienza University of Rome (Italy) and IZA :jmichele.dimaio@uniroma1.it, Sapienza University of Rome (Italy) and IZA §rgatti@worldbank.org, The World Bank1aislam@worldbank.org, The World Bank1 1 Introduction Conflict a