电子行业：科创板询价报告之晶晨股份

规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 1 证券研究报告 主要财务指标（单位：百万元） 晶晨股份的主要产品为多媒体智能终端 SoC 芯片，主要应用于智能机顶盒、智能电视和 AI 音视频系统等终端设备。公司业务起源于美国硅谷，目前在上海、北京、深圳、美国、香港等地设有研发中心或分支机构。  公司在国内机顶盒芯片市场排名第二，机顶盒零售市场市占率第一。公司的主要竞争对手是国际顶尖芯片设计巨头海思（华为旗下）和联发科（台湾上市公司）等。按出货渠道来划分，机顶盒市场可以分为运营商市场和零售市场。根据格兰研究数据，2018 年，晶晨在国内 IPTV 和 OTT TV 机顶盒芯片市场排名第二，其中，零售机顶盒市场公司芯片份额排名第一，运营商市场排名第二，整体国内市场排名第二，仅次于华为。  公司智能电视芯片位居国内第一梯队，智能音箱芯片卡位百度、小米等优质客户。2018 年，公司将智能电视 SoC 芯片的工艺节点水平提升至 12nm，研发出支持 8K 解码的智能电视SoC 芯片，年度智能电视 SoC 芯片出货量超过 2,000 万颗，位居国内第一阵营。公司 AI 音视频系统终端芯片的收入主要来源于智能音箱芯片，相关方案已被百度、小米、Google、Amazon等企业采用。其中，小米小爱音箱、百度小度音响和 Google Home Hub 等产品销量在全球排名靠前。  公司估值及询价建议。我们预测公司 2019-2021 年实现营业收入分别为 26.8、32.4 和 39.6 亿元；实现归母净利润分别为 2.77、3.47 和 4.33 亿元。我们用相对估值和绝对估值两种方法来分别计算公司的合理估值水平。考虑到科创板具有比 A股更高的门槛，机构投资者拥有比 A 股更高的话语权，初期科创板公司存在较高的估值溢价，但长期来看市场的估值将更为理性。综合考虑以上因素，并参考公司历史估值，我们审慎地采用 PE 估值与现金流折现法的平均值对公司进行估值，即公司的合理估值中枢为 29.29 元/股，对应公司上市后总市值为120.43 亿元，按 30%区间计算，建议询价区间为[25.47,33.11]元/股。  风险提示：景气度下行风险、技术更新换代风险、贸易摩擦风险、市场系统性风险等等。 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 营业收入 2,369 2,682 3,238 3,959 （+/-） 40.1% 13.2% 20.7% 22.2% 营业利润 297 307 385 480 （+/-） 189.9% 3.3% 25.4% 24.6% 归属母公司净利润 283 277 347 433 （+/-） 261.8% -2.0% 25.4% 24.6% EPS（元） 0.76 0.67 0.84 1.05 市盈率 39.1 44.3 35.3 28.3 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研发部 分析师：徐鹏 执业证书编号：S1050516020001 电话：021-54967573 邮箱：xupeng@cfsc.com.cn 华鑫证券有限责任公司 地址：上海市徐汇区肇嘉浜路 750 号 邮编：200030 电话：（86 21）64339000 网址：http://www.cfsc.com.cn 2019 年 7 月 23 日 电子 科创板询价报告之晶晨股份 建议询价区间：[25.47,33.11]元/股 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 2 华鑫证券·科创板询价报告 目录 一、公司及行业概况 ························································································································································ 3 1.公司简介 ··············································································································································································· 32.多媒体音视频领域近几年保持较快的发展速度 ················································································································ 53.公司主要客户 ········································································································································································ 6二、财务数据 ···································································································································································· 6 三、股权结构及融资历程 ················································································································································· 7 四、公司估值及询价建议 ················································································································································· 8 1. 假设条件及盈利预测 ·························································································································································· 82. 公司估值及询价建议 ·························································································································································· 9五、风险提示 ·····························