Deutsche Bank-Asia Strategy Outlook 2024 Riding the wind waves-105337955

6 December 2023With trade wars, pandemic and global commodity inflation in quick succession, the Asian ‘dragon boat’ is no stranger to riding the wind and ploughing through the waves. While 2024 will again bring with it multiple challenges (the global economy ‘lands’, a heavy election calendar), it will also present opportunities (easier financial conditions, electronics recovery) as we set course – hopefully – for calmer waters. How we sail through the 'Year of the Dragon' will depend, among other things, on how policymakers manage the trade-offs between inflation and growth; whether China does a ‘harder’ pivot on policy; and if global capital returns.Asia has the lowest carry to offer as a region among EM geographies, but the highest beta to a soft landing scenario, with central banks in the region likely to hold out the longest among EM on cutting rates. This should make Asia a relatively more appealing proposition as we get towards the other end of the DM policy rates plateau, as preference for global investor allocation shifts from carry more towards growth and value - more so if China growth were to surprise for the better.Source : UnsplashSameer GoelMacro Strategist+65-642-36973Perry KojodjojoStrategist+852-2203 6153Bryant XuStrategist+65-6423 5558Joey ChungResearch Analyst+65-6423 8298Mallika SachdevaStrategist (On Leave)Jalaj SinghResearch AssociateDeutsche Bank AG/Hong KongIMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 041/10/2023. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.Deutsche BankResearch Asia Fixed Income Asia Strategy Outlook 2024 Date Riding the wind & wavesDistributed on: 06/12/2023 01:02:06 GMT7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa6 December 2023Asia Strategy Outlook 2024Page 2Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongTable Of ContentsOverview: Riding the wind & waves..................................................................3China: Looking for a harder pivot.......................................................................9India: Structural vs cyclical..............................................................................13Indonesia: A consequential year......................................................................15Korea: Getting Won act together.....................................................................17Malaysia: "Truly Asia"......................................................................................19Philippines: Back of the pack...........................................................................21Singapore: Not if, but when.............................................................................23Taiwan: Better mode, fatter tails......................................................................25Thailand: The honeymoon is over....................................................................27Vietnam: Turn around....................................................