信用债报告：信用债偿债压力继续上升，短端信用利差下行明显

规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 1 证券研究报告·信用债报告 华鑫证券 研究发展部 证券分析师： 刘浏 执业证书编号：S1050518030001 电话：021-54967585 邮箱：liuliu@cfsc.com.cn 华鑫证券有限责任公司 研究发展部 地址：上海市徐汇区肇嘉浜路 750 号 邮编：200030 电话：（86 21）64339000 网址：http://www.cfsc.com.cn 摘要：  信用债一级市场：上周，主要公司类信用债品种，发行量继续回升，净融资金额上升。同时，单周总偿还量在本周大幅回升，偿债压力上升。从发行结构来看，高评级占比继续回升，同时，低评级占比也有所回升，从净融资角度，AAA 级主体净流入大幅回升，AA 级以下主体仍为净流出，但净流出幅度有所缩小，中低评级发债环境相对平稳。从发行利率来看，近期，中票发行利率回升，短融发行利率下降。  信用债二级市场：上周，中短融和城投债到期收益率多数上行，信用利差涨跌不一。从到期收益率来看，城投债中 3 年期和 5 年期品种上行幅度较高，而中短融中 6 个月、3 年期和 5 年期上升幅度均较高。从信用利差来看，整体呈现短端信用利差下行，而中端信用利差上行的走势。从信用利差所处分位数来看，目前 6 个月和 1 年期品种分位数相对处于低位，而 5 年期品种分位数在上周上行明显。  重大信用事件：上周，共计有 6 个主体发生评级变动，其中 3 家为下调评级，3 家为上调评级。下调评级的 3 家企业，为民营企业和公众企业，上调评级的 2 家为地方国企、央企和民企。  其他重大事件：上周，统计局公布一季度经济数据。整体来看，一季度经济有所企稳。对于信用债而言，结合一季度金融、经济数据来看，整体信用环境有所改善，且经济企稳有利于支撑企业后续盈利，有助于缓解整体的信用风险。但从个债而言，整体改善并不意味着个债不存在风险，仍需警惕个债的风险。  风险提示：信用风险事件对市场的影响。2018 年 4 月 23 日 固收报告 信用债偿债压力继续上升，短端信用利差下行明显 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 2 固收报告·信用债报告 目录 一、信用债一级市场 ................................................................................................................................................3 （一）发行规模 ···························································································································································· 3 （二）发行结构 ···························································································································································· 3 （三）发行利率 ···························································································································································· 4 二、信用债二级市场 ................................................................................................................................................4 （一）到期收益率 ························································································································································ 4 （二）信用利差 ···························································································································································· 5 （三）信用债偏离度 ···················································································································································· 7 三、信用债重大事件 ................................................................................................................................................7 （一）评级变动 ···························································································································································· 7 （二）其他重要事件 ···················································································································································· 8 四、风险提示 ...........................................................................................................................................................8 规范、专业、创新