策略专题：新库存周期的崛起

规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明1华鑫证券·策略专题 证券研究报告·策略报告·策略专题 华鑫证券研究发展部 分析师： 严凯文 执业证书编号：S1050516080001 电话：021-54967584 邮箱：yankw@cfsc.com.cn 曹愻川 执业证书编号：S1050517070001 电话：021-54967586 邮箱：caoxc@cfsc.com.cn 华鑫证券有限责任公司 研究发展部 地址：上海市徐汇区肇嘉浜路 750 号 邮编：200030 电话：（86 21）64339000 网址：http://www.cfsc.com.cn  不能忽视的库存周期库存周期即企业的库存由于市场供需的变化产生的周期性波动，是宏观经济中因供求关系变化波动产生的较为直观的现象。通常意义上，我们将库存周期划分为一个循环四个阶段，即被动去库存、主动补库存、被动补库存、主动去库存，分别对应经济周期中的复苏、繁荣、衰退、萧条四个阶段。库存周期作为传统周期理论中的短周期，其对经济周期变化有较强的解释作用。 我们发现，产成品存货的变化，对工业企业利润具有一定的前瞻性指示作用，从而在目前宏观经济指标难以真实反映经济走势的背景下，库存相对于中观指标的前瞻性弥足珍贵。  历史上库存周期对经济增长具有较强的解释性历史上中国 2000 年-至今一共经历了 5 轮完整的库存周期。在中国过去的 5 轮完整的库存周期分别为，2000-2002、2002-2006、2006-2009、2009-2013、2013-2016，如果按时间跨度来分，其中两轮为小周期，长度大约在 29 个月左右，另外有三轮大周期，时间跨度在 40-47 个月之间。 此外从历史上看，库存周期对 GDP、工业增加值、全 A 利润增速均有较强的解释力度。所以一轮新的库存周期的开始，也将意味着工业企业新一轮扩张的开端，由于全 A 市场中工业企业利润总额占比超过 30%，工业企业利润的波动对全 A 利润增速影响明显，对全 A 非金融企业利润增速更是起到决定性影响。  本轮库存周期进入尾声库存指数当月回升，产成品库存指数 47%，环比回升 0.6 个百分点；原材料库存指数 48.4%，环比回升 2.1 个百分点。从当月数据看，部分工业企业已经出现主动补库存举动，但结合历史数据趋势看，目前仍属于主动去库存阶段。 不过边际信号已经出现，我们认为 2019 年上半年中国经济还将惯性下滑，随着主动去库存周期结束，库存新周期、货币财政政策、制造业减税降费效应显现，将改变工业生产者生产经营的预期，并增加原材料采购和生产，所以也将意味着去库存进入尾声向补库存过渡，预计发生在 2-3季度，经济触底的信号已经出现。  风险提示：宏观经济意外下滑、流动性紧缩加剧、美联储加息超预期。 2019 年 4 月 9 日 策略专题 新库存周期的崛起 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明2 策略报告·策略专题 目录 一、不能忽视的库存周期 ........................................................................................................................................4 （一）什么是库存周期 ················································································································································ 4 （二）为何我们在当下时点关注库存 ························································································································ 5 二、新库存周期的崛起............................................................................................................................................6 （一）过去五轮完整库存周期 ···································································································································· 6 （二）第六轮库存周期回顾以及对市场影响 ············································································································ 7 （三）2 月 PMI 数据中出现边际信号 ························································································································ 8 （四）去库存渐入尾声阶段 ········································································································································ 9 （五）新一轮库存周期即将开启 ······························································································································ 11 三、历史经验表明主动补库存下行情大有可为.................................................................................................... 12 （一）历史上主动补库存阶段指数均实现上涨 ······································································································ 12 （二）历史上库存周期各阶段行业表现 ·················································································································· 13 四、