中国-股票策略-中国策略：跟随政策，买入地产和电动汽车股

Editor:Vaughn LITel: (852) 2277 6628Email: foreignstock@phillip.com.hk Page | 1 | PHILLIP SECURITIES RESEARCH (SINGAPORE) MCI (P) 114/09/2018 Ref. No.: CN2019_0001 China Strategy Follow the policy, buy property and electric vehicles. CHINA | POLICY | STRATEGY Event: 2018 Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing, China On 19 to 21 December, the annual Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing. The conference is the highest-level economic conference held by the Central Committee of China and the State Council. Its core task is to summarise the economic work of 2018, analyse the current situation and deploy the focus for 2019. Research summary: • Stabilising demand will be the primary objective of the government in 2019. GDP growth is expected to stabilise a around 6.2%. • We focus on consumer industries supported by government policies, such as new energy vehicles. • Government has given signals of loosening the real estate sector, especially in the first-tier cities. 15 January 2019 KraneShares Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility Index ETF TICKER SYMBOL: KARS CLOSING PRICE: USD 18.88 YTD RETURN: 5.98% Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF TICKER SYMBOL: DRIV CLOSING PRICE: USD 12.33 YTD RETURN: 5.75% Invesco China Real Estate ETF TICKER SYMBOL: TAO CLOSING PRICE: USD 25.24 YTD RETURN: 3.66% Global X MSCI China Real Estate ETF TICKER SYMBOL: CHIR CLOSING PRICE: USD 15.26 YTD RETURN: 1.28% The Conference determined the tone of economic work for 2019. The Chinese economy is expected to face downward pressure in 2019. The Chinese government expects to stabilise aggregate demand with more active fiscal and monetary policies, maintain economic operations in a reasonable range and further stabilise six economic pillars - employment, finance, foreign trade, foreign capital, investment and expectations. In the current economic downturn, many sectors are at their valuation lows. For 2019, our strategy is overweight industries being supported by government policy. Thus, we recommend new energy vehicle industry and the real estate industry in 2019. Figure 1: As investments (or gross capital formation) trend down, emphasis is on consumption Source: CEIC, PSR Jieyuan Zheng (+65 6531 5428) Research Analyst zhengjy@phillip.com.sg Page | 2 | PHILLIP SECURITIES RESEARCH (SINGAPORE) CHINA STRATEGY UPDATE Figure 2: Consumption’s Contribution to GDP Growth getting Bigger Source: CEIC, PSR 2019 is the 70th anniversary of the founding of New China. It is a crucial year for building a well-off society. According to the targets set in 2017: by 2020, per Capita GDP needs to more than double compared to 2010. Given in 2010 per Capita GDP is RMB 35,275.31, based on China Government’s assumption, the population in 2020 will reach 1.42 bn, GDP growth rate in 2018 maintains around 6.5%, we calculated that in 2019 and 2020, the Chinese GDP growth rate would attempt to remain at around 6.2%. We focus on consumer industrie