中国经济观察之一：多角度观察房地产市场

规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 1 华鑫证券·宏观专题 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观专题 华鑫证券研究发展部 分析师： 曹愻川 执业证书编号：S1050517070001 电话：021-54967586 邮箱：caoxc@cfsc.com.cn 刘浏 执业证书编号：S1050518030001 电话：021-54967585 邮箱：liuliu@cfsc.com.cn 华鑫证券有限责任公司 研究发展部 地址：上海市徐汇区肇嘉浜路 750 号 邮编：200030 电话：（86 21）64339000 网址：http://www.cfsc.com.cn  基础供给角度的结构观察三线城市供地多，住宅类占比提升。2018 年前 9 月与 2017 年同期相比，供地数量及面积均有上升。三线城市供应量明显高于 2017 年同期，一线城市供地减少的趋势较为明显。相比 2017 年，2018 年土地供给更偏向于住宅类用地，从而导致供地结构中住宅类用地占比上升。 房屋供给存在结构性问题。2018 年前三季度，房屋竣工面积累计同比下滑 11.4%，整体的新增供给处于下滑阶段。东部沿海地区房地产投资增速高于中西部地区，区域的富集效益更加明显。住宅类房屋竣工面积同比出现下滑，其下滑幅度略低于商业营业竣工面积和办公楼竣工面积。  从市场角度观察房地产变化拿地潮开始退去。自 2017 年开始，地产待开发面积的季节性波动消失，取而代之的是不断增加的库存量。2018 年前三季度的土地购置费已超过 2017年全年，增速已明显出现放缓迹象。 房价上涨依旧，但增速放缓。2018 年，以 70 个大中城市新建商品房价格指数衡量，整体新建商品房价格仍处于上升的趋势。一线城市二手住宅价格和二三线城市二手住宅价格增速出现分化。  除基本供需关系外，仍有多重影响因素政策仍是影响房地产市场的重要因素。2017 年 3 月，中央工作报告中提出“遏制房价过快上涨”，2018 年 7 月 30 日，中央政治局会议提出“遏制房价上涨”。随后，多部门陆续出台相关细则，各地也出台相应调控细则。 房地产开发企业资金情况不容乐观。2018 年 1-9 月，房地产开发资金增速相比上半年有所回升，但仍低于 2016 年、2017 年整体水平。资金来源中仍以销售回款类资金为主。从企业财务上，A 股上市公司数据显示企业资产负债情况并未改善，短期偿债能力出现小幅下滑的情况。 住宅投资回报率走低。我们认为住宅投资回报来源于两个部分：房价上涨和租金。在观察部分一二线城市后我们发现，投资回报率波动平缓，趋势向下。在房价趋于稳定的情况下，未来住宅的投资回报将主要依靠租金收入，而目前住宅的租金回报率较低，或降低其整体的回报。  风险提示：流动性持续收紧风险；利率波动风险；人民币贬值风险；美元指数波动加剧风险等。 2018 年 11 月 2 日 宏观专题 中国经济观察之一：多角度观察房地产市场 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 2 宏观报告·宏观专题 目录 一、 基础供给角度的结构观察 ............................................................................................................................4 （一） 三线城市供地多，住宅类占比提升 ············································································································ 4 1. 三线城市供地量上升明显 ······································································································································· 4 2. 住宅类供地占比不断提升 ······································································································································· 5 （二） 房屋供给存在结构性问题 ···························································································································· 6 1. 发达地区的富集效益显著 ······································································································································· 6 2. 住宅明显好于商服供应 ··········································································································································· 7 二、 从市场角度观察房地产变化 .........................................................................................................................8 （一）拿地潮开始退去 ················································································································································ 8 （二）房价上涨依旧，但增速放缓 ···························································································································· 9 1.新建商品房市场大体稳定 ········································································································································· 9 2.二手房价格走势出现分化 ············································