房地产行业12月数据分析：销售继续回暖，房价结构性上涨，房企对市场保持谨慎

请参阅最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明 0 证券研究报告：行业研究 房地产 评级：中性 维持 销售继续回暖 房价结构性上涨 房企对市场保持谨慎 房地产行业 12 月数据分析 2018 年 1 月 19 日 行业月报 相关研究： 投资要点： ➢ 销售：12 月份一二线城市销售回暖，三四线城市销售继续保持火热；全国商品房库存继续下降，住宅库存已下降至 2013 年 10 月份水平。 ➢ 价格：12 月份全国住宅销售价格结构性上涨，尤其是一二线城市价格结构性上涨，带动商品房价格上涨。 ➢ 投资：12 月份土地购置、新开工、竣工数据均低于预期；房地产投资增速继续下行。在库存大幅下降和销售回暖背景下，房企补库存意愿不强，表明房地产企业对后市并不乐观。 ➢ 融资：受销售回暖影响，房企定金及预收款继续同比增长；银行贷款和自筹资金也同比两位数增长，房地产企业现金流充裕。 分析师：平海庆 执业证书编号： S0760511010003 电话：010-83496341 邮箱：pinghaiqing@sxzq.com 地址：太原市府西街 69 号国贸中心 A座 28 层 北京市西城区平安里西大街中海国际中心7 层 山西证券股份有限公司 http://www.i618.com.cn 数据来源：wind 资讯、山西证券研究所 行业研究|地产月报 请参阅最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明 1 图表目录 1.销售：三四线销售强劲带动销售反弹 ···················································· 3 图 1：全国商品房累计销售面积 ··················································································4 图 2：全国商品房累计销售金额 ··················································································4 图 3：全国商品房单月销售面积 ··················································································4 图 4：全国商品房单月销售金额 ··················································································4 图 5：30 城市销售面积 ·····························································································5 图 6：一线城市销售面积 ···························································································5 图 7：二线城市销售面积 ···························································································5 图 8：三线城市销售面积 ···························································································5 图 9：TOP10 房企销售面积·························································································6 图 10：TOP10 房企销售金额 ·······················································································6 图 11：TOP10 房企销售增速 ·······················································································6 图 12：TOP10 房企销售占比 ·······················································································6 图 13：全国商品房待售面积·······················································································7 图 14：全国商品住宅待售面积 ····················································································7 2.价格：全国房价环比继续下行 ····························································· 8 图 15：全国商品房累计销售均价 ·················································································9 图 16：全国商品房单月销售均价 ·················································································9 图 17：全国商品住宅累计销售均价 ··············································································9 图 18：全国商品住宅单月销售均价 ··············································································9 图 19：TOP10 房企销售均价 ····················································································· 10 3.投资：住宅补库存力度加大 投资增速反弹 ·········································· 11 图 20：商品房累计新开工面积 ················