气候变化适应的社会方面：减少冲突风险（英）

SUMMARYw In developing countries, the effects of climate change inter-act with factors such as under-development, high dependence on natural resource-based liveli hoods, inequality, weak state institutions and marginal-ization to increase the risk of insecurity and violent conflict. Along with sustainable develop-ment and climate change miti-gation, climate change adap-tation is another key entry point for addressing climate-related security risks. However, key social factors that could positively influence adaptation outcomes and ultimately miti-gate climate-related security risks are often overlooked.This SIPRI Policy Brief offers insights into the importance of social capital for facilitating cli-mate change adaptation and preventing and resolving nat-ural resource-related com-munal conflict in developing coun tries. The policy brief recommends: (a) improving trust between communities and governments through collabora tive processes for knowledge exchange, setting priorities and determining appropriate climate change adaptation practices; and (b) increasing knowledge of climate change among traditional and local leaders to strengthen local conflict resolution mechanisms. THE SOCIAL SIDE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: REDUCING CONFLICT RISKfarah hegazi and katongo seyubaSeptember 2022SIPRI Policy BriefThere is growing evidence that the effects of climate change are increasing risks to people’s liveli-hoods, access to water and food, and security.1 Climate change creates compound risks and when these risks interact with existing vulnerabilities, it contributes to insecurity.2 In developing countries, the effects of climate change interact with factors such as under-development, high dependence on natural resource-based livelihoods, inequality, weak state institutions and marginalization to increase the risk of insecurity and violent con-flict.3 Climate change in itself does 1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), ‘Summary for policymakers’, eds H.-O. Pörtner et al., Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Sakaguchi, K., Varughese, A. and Auld, G., ‘Climate wars? A systematic review of empirical analyses on the links between climate change and violent conflict’, International Studies Review, vol. 19, no. 4 (Dec. 2017); and Meierding, E., ‘Climate change and conflict: Avoiding small talk about the weather’, International Studies Review, vol. 15, no. 2 (June 2013). 2 Black, R. et al., Environment of Peace: Security in a New Era of Risk (SIPRI: Stockholm, 2022).3 Mobjörk, M., Krampe, F. and Tarif, K., ‘Pathways of climate insecurity: Guidance for policymakers’, SIPRI Policy Brief, Nov. 2020; van Baalen, S. and Mobjörk, M., ‘Climate change and violent conflict in East Africa: Integrating qualitative and quantitative research to probe the mechanisms’, International Studies Review, vol. 20, no. 4 not cause co