改善尼日利亚的和平前景：关注稳定（英）

IMPROVING THE PROSPECTS FOR PEACE IN NIGERIA: SPOTLIGHT ON STABILIZATION caroline delgadoSTOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTESIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public.The Governing Board is not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the Institute.GOVERNING BOARD Stefan Löfven, Chair (Sweden) Dr Mohamed Ibn Chambas (Ghana) Ambassador Chan Heng Chee (Singapore) Jean-Marie Guéhenno (France) Dr Radha Kumar (India) Dr Patricia Lewis (Ireland/United Kingdom) Dr Jessica Tuchman Mathews (United States)Dr Feodor Voitolovsky (Russia)DIRECTORDan Smith (United Kingdom)Signalistgatan 9SE-169 70 Solna, SwedenTelephone: +46 8 655 97 00Email: sipri@sipri.orgInternet: www.sipri.orgIMPROVING THE PROSPECTS FOR PEACE IN NIGERIA: SPOTLIGHT ON STABILIZATIONcaroline delgadoSeptember 2022© SIPRI 2022All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of SIPRI or as expressly permitted by law.ContentsAcknowledgements ivThe SIPRI–WFP Knowledge Partnership and Disclaimer vExecutive summary viiAbbreviations xii1. Context analysis 1Socio-economic needs, social cohesion and trust in government 1Overview of the conflict in north-east Nigeria 2Humanitarian response 7Box 1.1. The ethno-religious underpinnings of Boko Haram 2Box 1.2. The impact on the Lake Chad Basin 4Box 1.3. The social and economic impacts of Covid-19 in north-east Nigeria 62. The Nigeria case study approach 10Objectives and background 10Methodology 10WFP in Nigeria 11Findings: Stabilization deep dive 11Figure 2.1. Results for survey question: Is there is a link between not having 12 enough to eat and violence in your community? 3. Theory of change 1: Reducing intra-community tensions 14Contextual background 14Analysis 14Conclusions 20Conflict sensitivity concerns 21Recommendations 22Figure 3.1. Results for survey question: How would you describe current 16 relations between people in your community? Figure 3.2. Intercommunity relations disaggregated by community 184. Theory of change 2: GFD and Boko Haram recruitment 23Contextual background 23Analysis 23Conclusions 27Conflict sensitivity concerns 28Recommendations 29Figure 4.1. Beneficiary perceptions of why people join extremist groups 245. Critical cross-cutting observation: Efforts to contribute to stability 30 demand a coherent approach among humanitarian agencies that builds trust and reduces tensions Analysis 30Conclusions 32Recommendation 32About the author 34AcknowledgementsThe author is grateful to the interlocutors at the World Food Programme’s (WFP) Nigeria country office, as well as to interlocutors at other United Nations agen