世界粮食计划署对改善埃塞俄比亚和平前景的贡献（英）

THE WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME’S CONTRIBUTION TO IMPROVING THE PROSPECTS FOR PEACE IN ETHIOPIAfarah hegazi, vongai murugani, grazia pacillo and peter läderachSTOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTESIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public.The Governing Board is not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the Institute.GOVERNING BOARD Ambassador Jan Eliasson, Chair (Sweden) Dr Mohamed Ibn Chambas (Ghana) Ambassador Chan Heng Chee (Singapore) Jean-Marie Guéhenno (France) Dr Radha Kumar (India) Dr Patricia Lewis (Ireland/United Kingdom) Dr Jessica Tuchman Mathews (United States)Dr Feodor Voitolovsky (Russia)DIRECTORDan Smith (United Kingdom)Signalistgatan 9SE-169 70 Solna, SwedenTelephone: +46 8 655 97 00Email: sipri@sipri.orgInternet: www.sipri.orgTHE WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME’S CONTRIBUTION TO IMPROVING THE PROSPECTS FOR PEACE IN ETHIOPIAfarah hegazi, vongai murugani, grazia pacillo and peter läderachApril 2022© SIPRI 2022All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of SIPRI or as expressly permitted by law.ContentsAcknowledgements ivThe SIPRI–WFP Knowledge Partnership and Disclaimer vExecutive summary viiAbbreviations x1. Introduction 1Box 1.1. Key concepts and definitions 12. Historical, political and geographic context 2Federalism and decentralization 3Somali regional context 4Geographic and climate context 5Climate change in the Somali region 7Climate-related security risks in Ethiopia 7Figure 2.1. Temperature anomalies in Ethiopia relative to the 1901–2020 average 6Figure 2.2. Rainfall anomalies in Ethiopia relative to the 1901–2020 average 7Figure 2.3. Temperature anomalies in the Somali region relative to the 1901–2020 8 average Figure 2.4. Rainfall anomalies in the Somali region relative to the 1901–2020 average 93. Ethiopia case study approach 11Objectives and background 11Methodology 12Limitations 124. Findings: WFP’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace in Ethiopia 14Theory of change: Changing mobility patterns 14Theory of change: Livestock raiding 18Natural resource management 19Increasing WFP’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace 21Box 4.1. Strategic outcomes of WFP’s Ethiopia country strategic plan, 2020–2025 165. Cross-cutting components for improving the prospects for peace 27Gender 27Cash-based transfers 28Stabilization 28Measurement 296. Conclusions 30Summary of recommendations 30About the authors 31AcknowledgementsThe authors are grateful to the interlocutors at the World Food Programme’s Ethiopia country office, as well as to interlocutors at other UN agencies, donor organizations, local partners