Adyen NV (ADYEN.AS)_ 1H22 to demonstrate resiliency despite macro headwinds; structural positioning strengthening; reiterate ...(1)

Key Data __________________________________ GS Forecast ________________________________ GS Factor Profile ____________________________ Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details.   Revenue(€mn001.51,381.11,841.42,569.4)Old1, EBIT(€mn)595.0868.81,196.51,731.7  EPS(€)Old15.3222.0330.0843.60 EV/sales(X)65.237.327.219.0 EV/EBITDA(X)103.657.141.027.8 P/E(X)143.480.258.140.1 Or.salesrth(%)46.439.334.739.5  EPS(€)6.698.639.7012.56ADYEN.ASrelativetoEuropeCoverageADYEN.ASrelativetoEuropeTechnologyGrowth FinancialReturnsMultipleIntegrated Percentile20th40th60th80th100th We reiterate our Buy (on CL) rating on Adyen ahead of its 1H22 results on August 18. While we expect Adyen to not be immune from e-commerce and consumer spending headwinds, we believe Adyen is likely to be more resilient due to 1) market share gains in e-commerce; 2) substantial growth of POS volumes, especially given rising in-store spending in retail and hospitality and reopening; 3) unified commerce gaining momentum across more and more verticals; and 4) the ramp-up of newly added customers in the past 12 months and recent significant customer wins, which we believe will be accompanied by additional customer announcements at the results. Furthermore, we expect the travel rebound to play a significant role in 1H22 performance. While we forecast volume growth of c.49% yoy ex-fx in 1H22, we expect net revenue to grow at c.31% yoy ex-fx given that travel volumes come at a lower take rate and e-commerce customers moving to higher volume tiers get discounts. Consequently, we forecast a take rate of 0.182% in 1H22, down sequentially and year over year. While we expect Adyen to demonstrate margin expansion in 1H, we may not be surprised if the company uses the current environment to step up investments and hiring to further extend its leading market position, thus temporarily reducing operating leverage. Although Adyen does not provide annual guidance, we do believe the company will likely be able to maintain growth within the long-term net revenue growth range of mid-twenties to low-thirties. While our near-term growth assumptions reflect a macro slowdown, we believe that long-term structural drivers remain unchanged. Our bullish view is premised on 1) significant ADYN.AS12mPrieTarget:€2,650.00Prie:€1,784.60Upside:48.5%Adyen NV (ADYEN.AS) 1H22 to demonstrate resiliency despite macro headwinds; structural positioning strengthening; reiterate Buy (on CL)10 August 2022 | 9:26PM BST Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research report