和平环境：风险新时代的安全（英）

SECURITY IN A NEW ERA OF RISK1ENVIRONMENT OF PEACESecurity in a new era of riskENVIRONMENT OF PEACE2 Foreword 2 Executive summary 4 1 Two crises and a deficit 82 A new era of risk 263 A just and peaceful transition 424 Foundations of a new security 605 Towards an Environment of Peace 72 Conclusion 81 References 82ENVIRONMENT OF PEACE2FOREWORD FOREWORDTwo cataclysmic events have shaken our world in the space of just three years. The most serious pandemic in living memory has claimed millions of lives, sickened countless more people and caused economic damage measured in trillions of dollars. Now, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has killed many thousands and created millions of refugees; it threatens to wreak havoc in the world’s food supply, raises the spectre of nuclear conflict to a level not seen since the end of the cold war, and has raised questions anew over institutions designed to secure peace in Europe and globally.These events, so close in time but so different in causality, illustrate graphically that despite all the advances humankind has made, we remain vulnerable to shocks and hazards of many kinds, whether foreseeable or not.And hazards are increasing. There are more conflicts around the world, more displaced people and higher expenditure on arms than a decade ago. As well as in Ukraine, millions more people in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Syria, Yemen and other countries are being drawn into deepening insecurity. On top of this security crisis, humankind is creating an environmental crisis. Degradation of soil threatens food security, drought compromises water access, melting mountain glaciers and rising seas create flood hazards, the razing of forests removes essential resources and protection. In climate change and other issues, we are fast approaching tipping points that would make a return to stability much harder.You might ask what environmental degradation has to do with peace and security. The evidence assembled for this report shows that the answer is: everything. The twin security and environmental crises are linked in ways that we are only beginning to understand, with impacts we are only beginning to feel. Climate change is a risk multiplier for both new and pre-existing sources of tension. The impacts fall hardest in places already marked by poverty, dysfunctional governance and conflict history. But given the extent of interconnections in the 21st century, they have consequences right across the world—connecting people and populations in an environment of insecurity.This is not the first time that humanity has faced serious security and environmental threats. Fifty years ago, acid rain was decimating forests, the ozone hole was growing, and chemical pesticides threatened birds and insects. The consequences of this environmental destruction were unknown and deeply concerning. Margot WallströmChair, International Expert Panel, Environment of Peace Stockholm, May 2022SEC