埃塞俄比亚的转型：对非洲之角和红海地区的启示（英文）

SUMMARYw The intersection of two significant trends are affecting the regional dynamics of the Horn of Africa: the political transition underway in Ethiopia since 2018 and evolving Red Sea and Gulf security dynamics. Ethiopia’s transition has affected its relations in the Horn of Africa and the broader Red Sea region. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have taken a much more assertive approach to regional security since 2015, contributing to a major diplomatic rift with Qatar since 2017. Elucidating how states in the Horn of Africa are affected by and responding to external influences largely hinges on understanding the Ethiopian transition. The implications for the future of regional integration in the Horn of Africa must also be considered.No. 2020/5 March 2020SIPRI Insights on Peace and SecurityETHIOPIA’S TRANSITION: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND RED SEA REGIONjason mosleyI. IntroductionEthiopia’s security influence in the Horn of Africa puts it on a par with other strategic players such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—even if it cannot match those states in economic terms.1 Its proximity to Somalia and the long history of the Ethiopian state’s pursuit of its perceived interest vis-à-vis its Somali-inhabited lowland periphery have made it the dominant foreign policy actor in the Somali arena. Elucidating the broader dynamics of the Horn, in particular how states are affected by and responding to external influences, largely hinges on understanding the transition underway in Ethiopia.2This report examines the intersection of two significant trends affecting the regional dynamics of the Horn of Africa.3 First, Ethiopia is undergoing a political transition. Led since 2018 by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the transition offers the prospect of significant reforms but carries risks to the country’s economic and political stability. Second, since 2015, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have taken a much more assertive approach to regional security around the Arabian Peninsula—notably in terms of their armed intervention in Yemen. Since 2017, recurrent tensions produced a major diplomatic—and as yet unresolved—rift in the Gulf between Saudi Arabia and the UAE on one side and Qatar on the other. The Horn of Africa has been caught up in 1 Geographically, the Horn of Africa is normally understood to comprise Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia. As foreign military forces operate in ways that link deployments on land, in the air and at sea, for the purposes of this paper the Horn of Africa region is defined as a security space comprised of the fore core countries plus Kenya, the Seychelles, South Sudan and Sudan, as well as key adjacent maritime areas—the southern Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.2 This report complements two further SIPRI studies and a policy brief published in 2019 which analysed the evolving foreign military presence in the Horn of Africa and the related external security politics