南亚的核挑战：来自印度、巴基斯坦、中国、俄罗斯和美国的连锁观点（英文）

SOUTH ASIA’S NUCLEAR CHALLENGESInterlocking Views from India, Pakistan, China, Russia and the United Stateslora saalman and petr topychkanovSTOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTESIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public.The Governing Board is not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the Institute.GOVERNING BOARD Ambassador Jan Eliasson, Chair (Sweden) Dr Vladimir Baranovsky (Russia) Espen Barth Eide (Norway) Jean-Marie Guéhenno (France) Dr Radha Kumar (India) Ambassador Ramtane Lamamra (Algeria) Dr Patricia Lewis (Ireland/United Kingdom) Dr Jessica Tuchman Mathews (United States)DIRECTORDan Smith (United Kingdom)SOUTH ASIA’S NUCLEAR CHALLENGESInterlocking Views from India, Pakistan, China, Russia and the United Stateslora saalman and petr topychkanovApril 2021ContentsAcknowledgements ivSummary vAbbreviations vii1. Introduction 12. India 3Views on nuclear posture in South Asia 3Views on nuclear escalation in South Asia 4Box 2.1. Indian interviewees 43. Pakistan 7Views on nuclear posture in South Asia 7Views on nuclear escalation in South Asia 8Box 3.1. Pakistani interviewees 84. China 10Views on nuclear posture in South Asia 10Views on nuclear escalation in South Asia 11Box 4.1. Chinese interviewees 115. Russia 14Views on nuclear posture in South Asia 14Views on nuclear escalation in South Asia 16Box 5.1. Russian interviewees 156. The United States 18Views on nuclear posture in South Asia 18Views on nuclear escalation in South Asia 19Box 6.1. United States interviewees 197. Conclusions 22China and India 22China and the United States 22India and the United States 23India and Pakistan 23Pakistan, Russia and the United States 24Appendix A. Nuclear postures featured during interviews 25Appendix B. Strategic technologies featured during interviews 27Appendix C. Escalatory events featured during interviews 29AcknowledgementsThis publication was prepared in the framework of the project Assessing Nuclear Deterrence Risks and Challenges in South Asia. We would like to express our sincere gratitude to the German Federal Foreign Office for its generous financial support of the project.We are indebted to the experts who participated in the research interviews in 2020 and a workshop on 8–9 December 2020 and agreed to share their insights. The contents of this publication reflect the findings of the authors and the views expressed by the interviewees; they should not be taken to reflect the views of SIPRI or the German Federal Foreign Office.We are also grateful to our SIPRI colleagues Dr Sibylle Bauer, Shannon Kile, Dr Lucie Béraud-Sudreau and Dr Jingdong Yuan and the anonymous external reviewer for their comprehensive and constructive comments on the draft. We are also thankful