世界银行-国家层面的30x30路径及其对全球生物多样性保护的影响（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11269Country-Level Pathways to 30x30 and Their Implications for Global Biodiversity ProtectionSusmita DasguptaBrian BlankespoorDavid WheelerDevelopment Research Group &Development Data GroupDecember 2025 A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available at http://reproducibility.worldbank.org, click here for direct access. Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11269The Global Biodiversity Framework adopted at the United Nations Biodiversity Conference set a target to protect 30 percent of the world’s land and sea areas by 2030. This paper evaluates the potential contribution of the 30x30 initiative to biodiversity conservation by examining its implications for species that are endemic or occupy very small habitats. Using more than 600,000 species occurrence maps derived from Global Biodiversity Information Facil-ity data—substantially expanding representation for plants and invertebrates—the study develops high-resolution, country-specific templates that identify priority-ordered protected areas optimized for cost-effective species coverage. Each iteration expands protection to maximize gains for unprotected species until full coverage is achieved, allow-ing flexibility to adapt to national economic and political constraints, including the 30 percent target of 30x30. The results include priority-ordered terrestrial protected areas for 138 countries and marine protected areas for 160 countries. At the global level, full protection of currently protected species aligns with 30 percent terrestrial and marine cover-age. Expanding global land protection from 14.8 to 18.0 percent and marine protection from 16.6 to 19.9 percent would achieve 100 percent species coverage in the database. However, uneven species distributions make this infeasi-ble for all countries within the 30 percent territorial limit. Among the 242,414 critical species analyzed, 65.5 per-cent are currently protected. Most of the remainder could be covered within national 30 percent limits, although some countries would need to exceed them. The analysis highlights opportunity-cost disparities—particularly for low-income coun