Deutsche Bank-Asia Macro Insight 2026 A Year of Upkeeping-118993130

T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaT2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDistributed on: 21/11/2025 19:58:23 GMTDistributed on: 21/11/2025 19:58:23 GMT22 November 2025Deutsche BankResearch Asia Economics Asia Macro Insight Date China's growth slowdown will be limited to 4.5% in 2026, despite 'anti-involution" policy, amid infrastructure investment recovery.Hong Kong will sustain recovery momentum with 3.0% growth, supported by recovery in the financial and property sectors.India's growth is likely to remain resilient at 6.4%, as consumption and public investment remain supportive.Indonesia's growth will remain steady at 5%, with public demand rising faster.Malaysia's growth is likely to moderate slightly to 4.5%, despite stronger investment as consumption slows.The Philippines is expected to see a modest growth recovery to 5.1%, as private demand makes up for softer public spending.Earnings from tourism will remain a key support for Sri Lanka's 4% growth.Singapore's growth is likely to normalize to 2.4%, despite stronger investment, as consumption moderates.South Korea's growth will rebound to 2%, as domestic demand normalizes.Taiwan's growth will remain robust at 4.8%, amid a AI-related investment boom.Thailand seeks tourism recovery as growth is likely to slow to 1.5% amid macro policy limits.Vietnam's growth to remain strongest in the region at 7.7%, amid sustained strength in investment.While a broadening of tech capital investments presents upside risks, geopolitical risks linger, despite the US-CN truce. Although policies are expected to be growth-supportive, they face limits, amid a more mixed FX outlook. There are also election-related risks to consider for South Korea, Thailand, and the US.Overview ………………………….….....…..2China…........................................................4Hong Kong…...............................................8India….......................................................10Indonesia…...............................................14Malaysia…................................................16Philippines….............................................18Singapore…..............................................19South Korea..............................................21Sri Lanka…...............................................23Taiwan……...............................................25Thailand….................................................27Vietnam….................................................29DB Macro Forecasts.................................31Growth & Inflation Heatmap……............33EM Asia Macro Charts….........................34EM Asia Monetary Policy Monitor….......36Juliana LeeChief Economist+65-6423-5203Kaushik DasChief Economist+91-22-7180 4909Yi Xiong, Ph.D.Chief Economist+852-2203 6139Junjie HuangEconomist+65-6423-6699Deyun OuEconomist+852-2203 6166Deutsche Bank AG/SingaporeIMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED,