IMF-2050年亚洲人口与消费（英）

Demographics and Consumption in Asia Toward 2050 Sakai Ando, Kaitoh Hidano, and Jeongwon Son WP/25/247 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 NOV* The author(s) would like to thank Andrea Pescatori, Natalija Novta, and all the participants in IMF seminars for useful comments.© 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/247IMF Working Paper Asia and Pacific Department Demographics and Consumption in Asia Toward 2050 Prepared by Sakai Ando, Kaitoh Hidano, and Jeongwon Son* Authorized for distribution by Andrea Pescatori November 2025IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: What are the implications of demographics on total consumption and its sectoral composition in Asia toward 2050? Although the literature has studied total consumption and individual consumption categories separately, the research that studies both is scarce. Using household consumption surveys from seven Asian economies and UN population projections, we find that (1) the compositional effects of demographics on total consumption can be large when middle-aged population changes rapidly, (2) due to aging, some categories, including education and transport, may grow slower than others, like health, and (3) the implications are uncertain due to factors like economic growth, fertility, and migration. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Ando, Sakai, Hidano Kaitoh, and Jeongwon Son (2025), “Demographics and Consumption in Asia Toward 2050,” IMF Working Paper No. 25/247 JEL Classification Numbers: E2, E20, E21, E27, J1, J10, J11 Keywords: Demographics; Consumption; Aging Author’s E-Mail Address: sando@imf.org, kaitoh.hidano@strath.ac.uk, json@imf.org IMF WORKING PAPERS Demographics and Consumption in Asia toward 2050 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 3 WORKING PAPERS Demographics and Consumption in Asia toward 2050 Prepared by Sakai Ando, Kaitoh Hidano, and Jeongwon Son1 1 The authors would like to thank Andrea Pescatori, Natalija Novta, and all the participants in IMF seminars for useful comments. IMF WORKING PAPERS Demographics and Consumption in Asia toward 2050 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 4 1. IntroductionAsia is the most populous region and stands at the forefront of a demographic transformation that will reshape economic and social structures across the region. Economies such as Japan and Korea are already experiencing population decline and rapid aging. Even economies with growing populations, such as India and the Philippines, will confront sharp shifts in age structure in the coming decades.