Deutsche Bank-FX Blog What is driving high-frequency FX-118793151

T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaT2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDistributed on: 10/11/2025 14:30:33 GMTDistributed on: 10/11/2025 14:30:33 GMT10 November 2025Deutsche BankResearch Global Foreign Exchange FX Blog Date Copper's influence on FX has intensified, now surpassing US equities in affecting high-frequency moves across more currency pairs. Concurrently, VIX and US rates have seen a decline in their FX impact this week.Over the past three months, copper's most significant contemporary and forward-looking impact has been on USD/ZAR and AUD/USD, showing moderate correlations. Despite copper's recent surge, US equities continue to exert a more consistent and widespread influence, driving movements in pairs like USD/CHF, AUD/JPY, USD/TRY, USD/CNH, and USD/CAD.Digging deeper into specific pairs:nUSD/CAD is currently driven by a combination of Canadian equities, US equities, and copper, with strong correlations to US equities, EM equities, and VIX.nEUR/USD, while primarily influenced by European equities, shows strong correlations with US rates, EM equities, and copper.nUSD/JPY is driven by US equities and rates, maintaining solid correlations with US, UK, and EU rates.Based on correlation-based Minimum Spanning Trees, EM equities remain the dominant contemporaneous driver of high-frequency FX movements, with VIX and US rates emerging as significant secondary drivers.Figure 1, Figure 3 and Figure 13 look at causality in FX. Figure 1 shows the currencies whose moves can be statistically predicted by other asset classes. Figure 3 ranks the drivers of FX (highest to lowest number of currencies, driven by a given asset). Figure 13 shows the relative importance of each asset in driving a given currency in the recent period. Figure 11 looks at contemporaneous correlations. We show the top 3 correlations between FX pairs and other asset classes. Figure 12 shows intra-FX correlations. We use Granger causality tests to measure causality. All statistics are measured at 5-minute frequency. For further details, please see our updated methodology. For a summary of our FX quant tools, please also see DB FX research quant tools.Rohini Grover, Ph.D.Strategist+44-20-75475907Christabel CharlesResearch AnalystDeutsche Bank AGIMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.What is driving high-frequency FX?10 November 2025FX BlogPage 2Deutsche Bank AGFigure 1: Significant connections from assets to currencies# of conn. from other assets Assets driving currencies(Over last 4 weeks)(Over last 4 weeks)6M historySince '16USDCAD3CA EQ,US EQ,COPPER55%72%USDZAR3US EQ,COPPER,EM EQ65%82%EURSEK3US RATE,COPPER,VIX89%78%EURNOK3EU EQ,OIL,COPPER28%64%EURPLN3EU EQ,COPPER,EM EQ75%72%EURCHF3EU EQ,OIL,VIX41%72%USDJPY2US EQ,US RATE50%52%GBPUSD2UK RATE,OIL69%58%USDTRY2US EQ,US RATE61%58%AUDJPY2AU EQ,EM EQ5%9%XBTUSD2US EQ,COPPER46%81%EURUSD1EU EQ27%29%NZD