IMF-塑造服务贸易：预扣税的异质性效应（英）

Shaping Services Trade: the Heterogenous Effects of Withholding Taxes Li Liu, Alexander Klemm, and Parijat Lal WP/25/214IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 OCT *We are grateful to Katherine Baer, Sebastian Beer, Katarzyna Bilicka, Irem Guceri, Petr Janský, Martina Magli, Juan CarlosSuarez Serrato and seminar participants at IMF, NTA, CES-Ifo Summer Institute, and Max Planck Institute for Tax Law andPublic Finance for helpful comments.© 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/214IMF Working Paper Fiscal Affairs Department Shaping Services Trade: the Heterogenous Effects of Withholding Taxes Prepared by Li Liu, Alexander Klemm, and Parijat Lal* October 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper investigates the effects of withholding taxes on cross-border trade in services, using a newly compiled dataset covering the universe of bilateral service imports and withholding tax rates from 2005 to 2021. Employing a theoretical framework that highlights the role of withholding taxes in curbing base-eroding payments, the empirical analysis reveals significant effects, with estimated semi-elasticities of 4 for royalties, 1 for technical fees, and 1 for total service import. JEL Classification Numbers: F14, F23, H25, H32 Keywords: Services Trade, Corporate Taxation, Withholding Taxes, Profit Shifting Authors’ E-Mail Addresses: lliu@imf.org; aklemm@imf.org; pl2700@columbia.edu IMF WORKING PAPERS Shaping Services Trade: the Heterogenous Effects of Withholding Taxes INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 3 Contents 1.Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 52.Services Trade and How it is Taxed .................................................................................................... 72.1 Growing Services Trade ........................................................................................................................... 72.2 Taxation of Services Imports .................................................................................................................... 8Risks of Base Erosion and Profit Shifting ................................................................................................ 8Role of WHTs .......................................................................................................................................... 9Other Taxes on Service Imports ..........................