Overseas strength offsets domestic softness

PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG: RESP CMBR <GO> OR http://www.cmbi.com.hk 1 MN 31 Oct 2025 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Mindray (300760 CH) Mindray (300760 CH) - Overseas strength offsets domestic softness Overseas strength offsets domestic softness Mindray reported 9M25 revenue of RMB25.8bn, down by 12.4% YoY. Revenue in 3Q25 reached RMB9.1bn, up by 1.5% YoY, indicating a turnaround driven by accelerating overseas growth and mild domestic recovery. Overseas revenue rose 12% YoY to RMB4.6bn in 3Q, with revenue from Europe up by 29%. Domestic revenue fell by 7% YoY in 3Q, while the decline narrowed notably compared to 1H25. We anticipate a further acceleration in growth in 4Q25, supported by the ongoing recovery in domestic equipment procurement, solid overseas momentum, and a favorable base effect.  IVD: solid overseas growth; accelerated TLA installation. In 3Q25, IVD segment reported revenue of RMB3.6bn, down by 3% YoY, with overseas IVD revenue achieving double-digit growth. TLA (Total Laboratory Automation) installations continued to accelerate. In 9M25, 180 units of the MT8000 TLA were installed in China, and full-year domestic deployments are expected to exceed 200 units, per company guidance. Overseas MT8000 sales surpassed 20 units, which has met the full-year target. We expect TLA systems to enhance Mindray’s penetration into leading domestic hospitals and medium-to-high throughput labs overseas, supporting long-term IVD growth.  MIS: continued high-end upgrade. MIS segment reported revenue of RMB1.7bn in 3Q25, roughly flat YoY. Overseas MIS grew at a high single-digit rate, while sales of ultra-high-end products doubled in 9M25. We see significant potential for market share gains in high-end and ultra-high-end ultrasound, both domestically and internationally, driven by the rising adoption of Resona A20/ Nuewa A20 and upcoming launches in the premium portfolio.  Profitability under headwinds. Mindray’s attributable net margin declined to 29.3% in 9M25, down 7ppts YoY, mainly due to domestic pricing pressure from volume-based procurement (VBP) and intensified competition. Increased investment in overseas expansion also led to an increase in selling expenses. Going forward, we expect greater in-house reagent raw material production, a higher mix of high-end products, and growing overseas contribution to partly offset domestic margin pressure and support sound long-term profitability.  Maintain BUY. Given continued demand and pricing pressure in the IVD segment, we revise down our 2025E-27E forecasts and lower our target price to RMB249.21 based on a 9-year DCF model (WACC: 9.1%, terminal growth: 3.0%). Target Price RMB249.21 (Previous TP RMB279.70) Up/Downside 15.0% Current Price RMB216.69 China Healthcare Jill WU, CFA (852) 3900 0842 jillwu@cmbi.com.hk Cathy WANG (852) 3916 1729 cathywang@cmbi.com.h