国际清算银行-预测CBDC的支付偏好：离散选择实验（英）

BIS Working PapersNo 1296 Predicting the payment preference for CBDC: a discrete choice experiment by Syngjoo Choi, Bongseop Kim, Young Sik Kim, Ohik Kwon and Soeun Park Monetary and Economic Department October 2025 JEL classification: E40, E50, C90 Keywords: payment preference, retail CBDC, discrete choice experiment BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the BIS or its member central banks. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISSN 1682-7678 (online) Predicting the Payment Preference for CBDC:A Discrete Choice Experiment∗Syngjoo Choi† Bongseop Kim‡Young Sik Kim§Ohik Kwon¶Soeun Park‖September 18, 2025AbstractTo overcome the lack of data in predicting the payment preference for central bank digital currency (CBDC), we conducted a discrete choice experiment that varied the attributes of payment methods among over 3,500 participants in Korea. We identified key attributes, such as the discount rate and the issuance form, that shape the demand for payment methods. The predicted usage shares of existing payment methods closely align with their actual usage patterns in Korea, which lends credible support for the external validity of our experimental design. Building on this validation, we further predict that CBDC, when introduced, will be preferred over cash and mobile fast pay-ment but less preferred than credit and debit cards, with its adoption rate as the most preferred payment method ranging 19−27% of respondents.Keywords: Payment Preference, CBDC, Discrete choice experiment JEL classifica-tion numbers: E40, E50, C90∗We gratefully acknowledge the valuable inputs and discussions provided by Gabriele Camera, FiorellaDe Fiore, Jon Frost, Leonardo Gambacorta, Rodney Garratt, Nobuyuki Hanaki, Kim Huynh, Sunju Hwang,Kyungtae Lee, Jiaqi Li, Jaevin Park, Won Sung, and participants in the Economics of Payments XII Confer-ence, as well as seminars at the Bank of Korea (BOK) and the Bank for International Settlement (BIS). Partof this paper was written while Ohik Kwon was visiting the BIS as a central bank research fellow. Kwongratefully acknowledges the financial support (Central Bank Research Fellowship) provided by the BIS.This study was financially supported by the BOK and Creative-Pioneering Researchers Program throughSeoul National University. We received the Institutional Review Board (IRB) approval from Seoul NationalUniversity (IRB No.2109/002-023). This study is registered at the AEA Regist