国际清算银行-劳动力市场正处于十字路口：不确定性加剧，趋势疲软（英）

BIS Bulletin No 112 Labour markets at a crossroads: softening trends amid elevated uncertainty Leonardo Gambacorta, Enisse Kharroubi, Emanuel Kohlscheen and Ko Munakata 25 September 2025 BIS Bulletins are written by staff members of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. The authors thank Pablo Hernández de Cos, Gaston Gelos, Andréa Maechler, Benoit Mojon, Daniel Rees, Hyun Song Shin, Frank Smets, Christian Upper and Fabrizio Zampolli for comments and suggestions. We are grateful to Adam Cap and Emese Kuruc for excellent analysis and assistance, and to Nicola Faessler for administrative support. The editor of the BIS Bulletin series is Hyun Song Shin. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN: 2708-0420 (online) ISBN: 978-92-9259-888-4 (online) BIS Bulletin 1 Leonardo Gambacorta leonardo.gambacorta@bis.org Enisse Kharroubi enisse.kharroubi@bis.org Emanuel Kohlscheen emanuel.kohlsheen@bis.org Ko Munakata ko.munakata@bis.org Labour markets at a crossroads: softening trends amid elevated uncertainty Key takeaways • Labour market conditions in emerging market economies remain broadly stable, but unemployment in several advanced economies is edging up, and forward-looking indicators point to further weakening. • Cyclical forces partly explain these developments, but longer-term structural forces are also at play, including deregulation and demographic pressures (ageing, migration, participation of older workers). • Weaker labour markets may weigh on output, especially in the absence of productivity gains. In some emerging market economies, tighter conditions and stronger wage-price pass-through could raise the risk of de-anchoring inflation expectations. Introduction After a prolonged period of tightness following the Covid-19 pandemic, labour markets in advanced economies (AEs) have come back into balance and show some signs of further cooling. Unemployment rates have edged up in many jurisdictions: hiring has slowed, (unfilled) vacancies are declining and standard measures of demand-supply imbalances have reverted to pre-pandemic levels. While this partly reflects normalisation, forward-looking labour market indicators indicate signs of further weakening in some countries. These developments contrast with emerging market economies (EMEs), where labour market conditions have remained broadly stable, albeit with some differences across economies. This Bulletin reviews some of the recent trends in labour markets. After analysing cyclical factors, it delves into the structural drivers affecting supply and demand