Barclays_FX_EM_Macro_Strategy_Quarterly_Outlook_Is_the_dollar_bottoming_out

This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendations offered in this report.Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 67 .FX & EM Macro Strategy Quarterly OutlookIs the dollar bottoming out?A potential US growth rebound bodes well for dollar stabilityand for risk-sensitive currencies that tend to outperform.Risks to Fed independence could derail dollar stability, butgold offers a good value hedge.FX & EM Macro Strategy Quarterly OverviewIs the dollar bottoming out?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3A rebound in US activity bodes well for dollar stability and favours risk sentiment and high-betacurrencies. The key risk is the SCOTUS ruling on Cook, which we account for via a near-termovershoot in our new EUR/$ forecasts. Were it not for this, an outright bullish USD path wouldbe warranted.FX & EM Macro StrategyFX & EM Views for the Year Ahead. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27Please find our updated FX views and forecasts across G10 and EM currencies.FICC ResearchFX Strategy23 September 2025SIGNATUREThemistoklis Fiotakis+44 (0) 20 7773 2002themos.fiotakis@barclays.comBarclays, UKLefteris Farmakis+44 (0) 20 3555 6549lefteris.farmakis@barclays.comBarclays, UKAndrea Kiguel+1 212 526 8954andrea.kiguel@barclays.comBCI, USMitul Kotecha+ 65 6308 5439mitul.kotecha@barclays.comBarclays Bank, SingaporeMarek Raczko+44 (0) 20 3134 0089marek.raczko@barclays.comBarclays, UKShinichiro Kadota+81 3 4530 1374shinichiro.kadota2@barclays.comBSJL, JapanCompleted: 22-Sep-25, 22:07 GMT Released: 23-Sep-25, 04:00 GMTRestricted - ExternalFX & EM Macro StrategyForecast Tables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61G10 and EM forecasts.23 September 20252Barclays | FX & EM Macro Strategy Quarterly Outlook: Is the dollar bottoming out?FX & EM Macro Strategy Quarterly OverviewIs the dollar bottoming out?A rebound in US activity bodes well for dollar stability andfavours risk sentiment and high-beta currencies. The key riskis the SCOTUS ruling on Cook, which we account for via anear-term overshoot in our new EUR/$ forecasts. Were it notfor this, an outright bullish USD path would be warranted.More fundamental than you think: The dollar's resilience since June is deemed temporary bymarket consensus. We make several arguments and analytical points that there is more todollar resilience than meets the eye. Post-tariff valuations, overshooting pessimism in FXmarkets and the lack of credible investment alternatives create a more solid dollar backdropthan typica