2025年一方崛起多方衰落：汽车行业“大清算”研究报告（英文版）

The rise of one, the fall of manyThe Great Automotive ReckoningMay 2025The Great Automotive Reckoning | One giant rises, many titans fallContentsThe Great Automotive Reckoning 3A tale of two spirals5Hypothesis 1Scale and scope economies are creating ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’6Hypothesis 2The ‘haves’ are transforming the car into a consumable product 12Hypothesis 3The car is becoming a symbol of a new consumption lifestyle18The rise of one, the fall of many22Contact us25The rise of one, the fall of many | The Great Automotive ReckoningThe Great Automotive ReckoningThe automotive sector is on the brink of a brutal reckoning, and not all its players will survive3First, scale and scope economies have become the ultimate competitive advantage. Wielding shared architectures and centralised supply chains, challenger automakers are unleashing cost efficiencies and continuous innovation that have enabled them to compress platform cycles from what used to be eight to 10 years to a matter of mere months. With every one of their iterations introducing core technological improvements to hardware and software, legacy automakers, trapped in their complex supply networks and rigid engineering processes, are falling further behind. This is creating a deep divide between the ‘haves’ – challenger automakers adept at harnessing speed, cost, and innovation – and the ‘have-nots’, the legacy automakers clinging to an outdated model that no longer works.Second, the automobile is becoming a consumable product. The ‘haves’ are driving prices to the floor whileFuelled by aggressive scale and scope economies and the relentless ability to outpace and outprice the competition, a single dominant force is rising in automotive markets across the world. Meanwhile, the sector’s legacy automakers, once untouchable, are staring down an extinction event. This point-of-view unpacks three fundamental hypotheses defining this new reality. The rise of one, the fall of many | The Great Automotive Reckoning4simultaneously pushing the boundaries of hardware and software, making cars more affordable and yet more advanced. Equipped with cutting-edge technological features, the car is becoming a fashion statement, an entertainment hub, and a place of refuge – all in one. In gridlocked Southeast Asian megacities with notorious traffic jams, a car is no longer simply a means to get somewhere – it is becoming an extension of a living space. Third, at an affordable price point, the vehicle ceases to be perceived as a long-term investment. Instead, it becomes a rapidly evolving, disposable product – upgraded and replaced just like the latest smartphone upon expiration of hardware-dependent features or battery life. Durability and quality become less of a consideration in the purchase decision, and frequent vehicle turnovers and ownership of multiple cars become the realities of a new consumption lifestyle. This lifestyle reinvention also extends to the way cars are bought and sold. Unlike legacy auto