2025全球汽车工业展望报告（英）

AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY OUTLOOK 2025Knowledge Institute2 | Automotive Industry Outlook 2025External Document © 2025 Infosys Limited Knowledge InstituteKnowledge InstituteAutomotive Industry Outlook 2025 | 3External Document © 2025 Infosys Limited Knowledge InstituteExecutive summary 4Industry dynamics 6Business trends 9Technology outlook 14The way forward 16CONTENTS4 | Automotive Industry Outlook 2025External Document © 2025 Infosys Limited Knowledge InstituteEXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe automotive industry faces two primary imperatives in 2025: Electrification of mobility, and emergence of software-defined vehicles (SDVs) progressing to broader software-defined industry. These trends are experiencing a push for faster and wider adoption but also face significant challenges. A visible recent commitment to electric vehicles (EVs) occurred at the COP26 conference, and the shift to EVs is a key plank to achieve net zero. However, although sales of EVs reached 20% of 2024, US new vehicles sales, this pace was slower than expected. Global investments in EVs by vehicle makers — such as new EV factories, battery materials development, and new technologies — slowed due to falling demand.Another significant industry transformation: Software is becoming a central component of modern vehicles. SDVs could account for 90% of vehicle production by 2029, up from only 3.4% in 2021. The market size for automotive software and electronics is forecast to reach $462 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.5% from 2019. This shift requires shorter innovation cycles, continuous software updates, and transition from hardware-first to software-centric organizations. In this report, we explore the broad contours of mobility electrification, software-defined automobiles, challenges, trends, the role of digital technologies, and provide recommendations to take action.Automotive Industry Outlook 2025 | 5External Document © 2025 Infosys Limited Knowledge InstituteFinancial insightsThe global automotive industry is experiencing mixed financial performance in 2025, with moderate revenue increase coupled with margin pressure. The average new car price in the US has hovered near record levels of $48,000, with 1.7% year-over-year volume growth projected for 2025. However, growth in global automobile sales volume has fluctuated the past few years, with a sharp decline during the pandemic in 2020, a recovery with an upward trend in the next few years, and 2.5% growth in 2024. The pressure on profit margins is driven by tariffs, investments in new technologies (like EVs), raw material cost inflation, intense competition, and supply chain disruptions. Figure 1 is a plot of 2024-25 revenue and profit margins or earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for the largest automotive companies. Interestingly, Porsche and Mercedes-Benz rolled back their decision to stop investments in new internal combustion engines (ICEs), which gener