计算机1H25梳理：持仓回升，业绩改善，AI产业链结构性景气

2025/9/1证券研究报告•2530.6%24930249GB249249////25DSAI2总量视角：计算机指数表现、持仓边际明显修复，年初以来表现居中上游34Wind22530.6%Wind2025.01.01~2025.08.301924-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2024-01-022024-01-192024-02-072024-03-052024-03-222024-04-122024-05-062024-05-232024-06-122024-07-012024-07-182024-08-062024-08-232024-09-112024-10-092024-10-282024-11-142024-12-032024-12-202025-01-092025-02-052025-02-242025-03-132025-04-012025-04-212025-05-132025-05-302025-06-192025-07-082025-07-252025-08-13沪深300累计涨跌幅SW计算机累计涨跌幅30.59%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%通信有色金属电子综合计算机机械设备传媒国防军工医药生物基础化工汽车建筑材料钢铁电力设备农林牧渔美容护理环保社会服务非银金融轻工制造纺织服饰银行商贸零售家用电器建筑装饰房地产石油石化公用事业交通运输食品饮料煤炭-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000计算机持仓市值（亿元）占股票投资市值比例（右轴，%）超配比例（右轴，%）532Q20250.12%Wind642Q2025Wind2023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q2海康威视金山办公海康威视海康威视海康威视海康威视海康威视海康威视海康威视海康威视金山办公海康威视金山办公金山办公金山办公金山办公金山办公金山办公金山办公金山办公宝信软件宝信软件宝信软件宝信软件德赛西威宝信软件宝信软件东方财富东方财富东方财富三六零德赛西威德赛西威德赛西威宝信软件德赛西威东方财富宝信软件宝信软件德赛西威恒生电子科大讯飞东方财富东方财富三六零东方财富德赛西威德赛西威德赛西威龙芯中科东方财富恒生电子三六零用友网络东方财富三六零三六零三六零三六零三六零用友网络三六零科大讯飞三六零科大讯飞科大讯飞科大讯飞浪潮信息浪潮信息宝信软件德赛西威用友网络用友网络科大讯飞浪潮信息浪潮信息龙芯中科科大讯飞科大讯飞科大讯飞科大讯飞东方财富恒生电子恒生电子用友网络用友网络浪潮信息中科曙光用友网络中科曙光广联达浪潮信息浪潮信息龙芯中科广电运通纳思达用友网络龙芯中科中科曙光浪潮信息7•-16.3%7.1%2.3%9.8%41.6%26.6%23.9%12.5%21.0%6.6%6.7%-7.7%-0.5%-0.6%4.1%10.7%6.0%9.1%4.2%3.1%14.1%7.3%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5001Q20192Q20193Q20194Q20191Q20202Q20203Q20204Q20201Q20212Q20213Q20214Q20211Q20222Q20223Q20224Q20221Q20232Q20233Q20234Q20231Q20242Q20243Q20244Q20241Q20252Q2025营业总收入（亿元）营业总收入_YoY（右轴，%）-8.3%12.5%7.7%19.6%38.3%29.3%28.4%12.8%21.8%6.7%5.9%-8.2%-2.3%-1.6%3.0%13.7%8.6%11.5%10.1%4.7%18.6%12.0%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5001Q20192Q20193Q20194Q20191Q20202Q20203Q20204Q20201Q20212Q20213Q20214Q20211Q20222Q20223Q20224Q20221Q20232Q20233Q20234Q20231Q20242Q20243Q20244Q20241Q20252Q2025营业总收入（亿元）营业总收入_YoY（右轴，%）8•-77.4%11.6%13.1%47.1%292.5%0.6%4.3%10.3%-25.5%-19.8%-36.9%-41.7%28.8%-3.2%0.6%-11.1%-58.8%-14.4%-1.6%-66.4%91.9%24.2%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%0501001502002503001Q20192Q20193Q20194Q20191Q20202Q20203Q20204Q20201Q20212Q20213Q20214Q20211Q20222Q20223Q20224Q20221Q20232Q20233Q20234Q20231Q20242Q20243Q20244Q20241Q20252Q2025归母净利润（亿元）归母净利润_YoY（右轴，%）-71.6%3.7%14.5%68.2%236.0%4.6%15.7%5.1%-10.2%-10.1%-41.9%-30.8%26.7%-2.9%18.6%6.8%-43.8%-1.4%8.6%-42.1%58.3%21.7%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%0501001502002503001Q20192Q20193Q20194Q20191Q20202Q20203Q20204Q20201Q20212Q20213Q20214Q20211Q20222Q20223Q20224Q20221Q20232Q20233Q20234Q20231Q20242Q20243Q20244Q20241Q20252Q2025归母净利润（亿元）归母净利润_YoY（右轴，%）9•3,742 4,961 5,515 5,458 5,873 6,479 32.6%11.2%-1.0%7.6%10.3%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0001H20201H20211H20221H20231H20241H2025营业总收入（亿元）营业总收入_YoY（右轴，%）2,826 3,788 4,225 4,135 4,549 5,230 34.1%11.5%-2.1%10.0%15.0%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0001H20201H20211H20221H20231H20241H2025营业总收入（亿元）营业总收入_YoY（右轴，%）10•222.7 292.7 227.4 239.3 16