世界银行-资源丰富经济体的财政乘数：来自海湾国家的证据（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11193Fiscal Multipliers in Resource-Rich EconomiesEvidence from the Gulf CountriesMuhammad Khudadad ChatthaTobias KawalecEconomic Policy Global Department August 2025 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11193This paper utilizes the unique dynamics of fiscal budgeting in countries with a large hydro-carbon sector to estimate fiscal multipliers. The main identifying assumption rests on the idea that exogenously identified global hydrocarbon demand shocks can be considered plausible instruments for the fiscal space of countries in which that space is signifi-cantly dictated by hydrocarbon income, with such shocks being uncorrelated with non-hydrocarbon output at the same time. Using a local projection-instrumental variables (LP-IV) framework, the paper estimates that short-run fiscal expenditure multipliers to be in the ballpark of 0.1–0.4. In addition, the findings show that multipliers are at the upper end of this interval during recessions, indicating that fiscal policy in the Gulf countries is particularly effective during economic downturns.This paper is a product of the Economic Policy Global Department. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at mchattha@worldbank.org and tobias.kawalec@economics.ox.ac.uk.Fiscal Multipliers in Resource-Rich Economies:Evidence from the Gulf Countries∗Muhammad Khudadad Chattha†Tobias Kawalec‡Keywords: Fiscal multipliers, Fiscal policy.JEL Codes: E62, H60.∗We thank Desislava Nikolova, Wael Mansour, and Daniel Prinz for their valuable comments. We are also grateful toSafaa El-Kogali, Jasmin Chakeri, Eric Le Borgne, and Hoda Youssef for their guidance. All potential errors are our own.†The World Bank. E-Mail: mchattha@worldbank.org‡University of Oxford, Department of Economics. E-Mail: tobias.kawalec@economics.ox.ac.uk1IntroductionOne of the most contested objects in macroeconomic research has been the fiscal multiplier: thee