兰德-评估技术成熟度和扩散对恶意生物制剂开发能力的影响-展示透明、可重复的评估方法（英）

BARBARA DEL CASTELLO, HENRY H. WILLISAssessing the Impacts of Technology Maturity and Diffusion on Malicious Biological Agent Development CapabilitiesDemonstrating a Transparent, Repeatable Assessment MethodResearch ReportFor more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA3662-1.About RANDRAND is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. To learn more about RAND, visit www.rand.org.Research IntegrityOur mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/research-integrity.RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif.© 2025 RAND Corporation is a registered trademark.Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis publication and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to its webpage on rand.org is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research products for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, visit www.rand.org/about/publishing/permissions.RR-A3662-1iiiAbout This ReportIn this report, the authors propose and demonstrate a method to measure changes in threats associated with emerging technologies in the life sciences. The method focuses on how biotechnology maturation and diffu-sion could lower barriers for nonstate actors to create biological agents. By evaluating the current and near-term maturity of eight disruptive technologies through expert elicitation, the authors demonstrate how to use their method to assess the impact of emerging technologies on the biological agent creation pipeline. The method can be used and extended by those seeking to understand and manage emerging biosecurity risks generated through the advancement of biotechnologies and arti