硅谷银行-2025年第三季度经济季报（英）

3rd Quarter 2025SVB Asset Management views on economic and market factors affecting global markets and business healthOverviewDomestic EconomyForeign ExchangeCentral Banks and Monetary PolicyCorporate Bond MarketMarkets and Performance•Cautious optimism remained in Q2 2025, although uncertainty about the US policy environment persisted. Tariff policy, monetary policy, inflation and treasury yields were still fluid and difficult to forecast. At his press conference following the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Board Chairman Jerome Powell stated that “despite elevated uncertainty, the economy is in a solid position.”•Ongoing tariff negotiations and heightened geopolitical tensions created market volatility. The Trump administration’s tariff deadlines were seen as a critical input to inflation and growth.•Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator — rose 2.7% year-over-year (YoY) at the end of May. The Fed stated that it expects inflation to rise in 2025 due to tariffs, but then resume a disinflationary path in 2026.QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT | #0725-0104TD-0331263The US Treasury yield curve has been steepening.Although front-end yields have been volatile due to the uncertainty around policy, the yield curve has been normalizing, with short-term yields falling and longer-term yields increasing. The bond market showed resilience and generated positive returns in aggregate in Q2 2025.Bond performance was largely due to the market’s reactions to tariff negotiations, inflation remaining contained and economic indicators showing ongoing economic strength. Despite tariff-related widening in April, credit spreads tightened modestly amidst improving investor sentiment.The US equity sector was marked by volatility but regained strength during the quarter.US stocks, especially technology companies, recovered as investors felt better about possible changes in trade policy. Robust corporate earnings and the temporary pause on new tariffs somewhat eased investor concerns and helped foster a more positive environment.The unemployment rate remains low and has stayed in a narrow range.While some deceleration has been observed, labor market conditions remain steady with little fluctuation in the unemployment rate, which ended June at 4.1%.The FOMC held interest rates steady for the second straight quarter in 2025.Powell noted that Fed participants do not have a lot of conviction with their rate path forecasts and would continue to assess incoming data for their near-term monetary policy decisions. Market expectations still lean towards two rate cuts in 2025.Uncertainty remains around how tariffs will continue to affect inflation.While some inflationary pressures have been lifted, core price indicators remain above target. The Fed will balance potential inflation pressures with signs of slowing growth.QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT | #0725-0104TD-0331265Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomb