联合国贸易发展委员会-全球贸易更新（2025年7月）：全球贸易面临政策变化和地缘经济风险（英）

Global trade endures policy changes and geoeconomic risksFacts and figuresMonthly publication analysing trade policy and global trade dataJ U LY 2 0 2 5Global tradeupdate Global trade continued to expand at a slower rate in Q1 2025 and likely rose further in Q2, potentially increasing by US$300 billion in the first half of 2025. Developed countries’ trade increased more than developing countries’ in Q1 2025 driven by strong United States import growth and European Union exports. Trade imbalances continued to widen in Q1 2025, with an increasing United States deficit and rising surpluses in China and the European Union. Continued policy uncertainty and persistent geopolitical tensions are set to pressure global trade in the months ahead. United States leads global trade growth while many developing nationslag behind in Q1 2025Annual and quarterly trade growth relative to global averagesSource: UNCTAD calculations based on national statistics.Note: Deteriorating and improving trends are calculated as the QoQ growth in Q1 2025 of seasonally adjusted values. Worse and better than averages are calculated on the annual growth over the past four quarters. All statistics are rescaled relative to global averages. Trade growth is measured by the growth in imports plus exports. Data exclude services.HIGHLIGHTSLDCsBrazilChinaDevelopedDevelopingEuropeanUnionIndiaUnitedStatesSouthAfricaBetterthanaverageWorsethanaverageImprovingDeteriorating 2J U LY 2 0 2 5Global tradeupdate Facts and figures2019 Q12020 Q12021 Q12022 Q12023 Q12024 Q12025 Q1-30-20-10102030Quarterly servicesAnnual servicesQuarterly goodsAnnual goodsEstimatesNowcast2019 Q12020 Q12021 Q12022 Q12023 Q12024 Q12025 Q1-10-50510152025QuarterlyAnnualEstimatesNowcastGlobal trade trends and nowcast Global trade in goods and services continued its positive trajectory during the first quarter of 2025 (Q1 2025), with a quarter-over-quarter (quarterly) increase of about 1.5 per cent and a trailing four quarters (annual) growth rate of 3.5 per cent. In Q1 2025, trade in goods and services grew at similar rates of approximately 1.5 and 1.7 per cent, respectively. However, services growth remains much higher on an annual basis, at around 9 per cent. The UNCTAD nowcast remains positive for Q2 2025, indicating a QoQ growth of about 2 per cent in both goods and services. According to these estimates, global trade is set to expand by approximately US$300 billion in the first half of 2025, with goods contributing about US$230 billion and services around US$70 billion.Global trade in goods and services remains strong in the first half of 2025Annual and quarterly growth in the value of trade in goods and servicesSources: UNCTADstat; UNCTAD calculations based on national statistics. Note: Quarterly growth is the quarter over quarter growth rate of seasonally adjusted values. Annual growth is calculated using a trade-weighted moving average over the past four quarters. Figures for Q1 2025 are estimates. Q2 2025