IMF-应对天气冲击：加强纳米比亚农业韧性的挑战和投资（英）

Navigating Weather Shocks: Challenges and Investing to Strengthen Agriculture Resilience in Namibia Chen Chen, Ankita Goel, Koralai Kirabaeva, Nooman Rebei and Hajime Takizawa SIP/2025/091IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on May 28, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/133. 2025 JUL © 2025 International Monetary Fund SIP/2025/091 IMF Selected Issues Paper African Department Navigating Weather Shocks: Challenges and Investing to Strengthen Agriculture Resilience in Namibia Prepared by Chen Chen, Ankita Goel, Koralai Kirabaeva, Nooman Rebei and Hajime Takizawa Authorized for distribution by Xiangming Li July 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on May 28, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/133. ABSTRACT: Namibia’s arid climate makes it highly susceptible to severe weather shocks. The prolonged drought in 2023–24 caused a sharp decline in crop yields and exacerbated food insecurity. This paper documents Namibia’s vulnerabilities to future weather shocks, including droughts and changes in rainfall patterns, discusses potential economic and fiscal implications, and explores public investment strategies. Investing in agricultural resilience, including water infrastructure, drought-resistant crops, and farmer insurance schemes, can mitigate climate-induced economic losses and improve food security. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Chen et al. “Navigating Weather Shocks: Challenges and Investing to Strengthen Agriculture Resilience in Namibia.” IMF Selected Issues Paper (SIP/2025/091).JEL Classification Numbers: F18, H54, O13, Q17, Q54 Keywords: Climate Change, Drought, Agricultural Resilience, Food Security, Public Investment, Namibia Author’s E-Mail Address: AGoel2@imf.org , HTakizawa@imf.org , CChen3@imf.org , NRebei@imf.org , KKirabaeva@imf.org SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Navigating Weather Shocks: Challenges and Investing to Strengthen Agriculture Resilience in Namibia Namibia Prepared by Chen Chen, Ankita Goel, Koralai Kirabaeva, Nooman Rebei and Hajime Takizawa A. Introduction1.Namibia is one of the most arid countries in the world, rendering it vulnerable to severeweather shocks. With 92 percent of Namibia's land classified as arid, much of the country is inhospitable,owing to severe water scarcity causing challenges in sustaining agriculture andhuman settlements. The country is ranked asthe 21st most water stressed countriesglobally.1 This arid environment affects foodsecurity, as 11 percent of Namibianhouseholds depend on subsistence orcommercial farming as the main source oflivelihood, which makes them highlyvulnerable to drought and water shortages.2 It