世界银行-菲律宾的不平等、教育和职业变化（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11163Inequality, Education, and Occupational Change in the PhilippinesNadia Belhaj Hassine BelghithFrancine Claire FernandezBenjamin Aaron LavinPoverty and Equity Global Department June 2025 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11163Despite significant progress in reducing poverty, the Phil-ippines continues to face high inequality, which stayed elevated in the early 2000s as the economy grew. Although inequality has gradually declined since 2012, it remains among the highest in Southeast Asia. This paper examines how changes in education levels and occupational struc-ture have shaped the wage distribution over the past two decades, particularly how changes in the relative supply of skills and the structure of employment have influenced wage gaps in recent years. Using two decades of labor force survey data, the paper examines the wage premium and the supply of skilled workers in the Philippines, finding that the slow growth in college-educated workers has sustained high wage premium for skilled workers. Unconditional quantile regressions reveal that returns to both college education and high-skill occupations increase monotonically over the wage distribution, contributing to the persistence of inequality. Changes in occupational structure have also influenced income distribution. Low- and middle-skilled jobs saw relative wage gains from 2002 to 2012, but middle-skilled occupations experienced the highest growth from 2012 to 2016—a key driver behind falling wage inequality. Employ-ment trends followed a similar pattern, with middle-skilled job growth peaking in 2012-2016. Recent trends suggest a shift away from middle-skilled jobs, though it remains uncertain whether this reflects structural changes in the labor market or temporary disruptions.This paper is a product of the Poverty and Equity Global Department. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at nbe