欧洲央行-罢工时铁很热 - 最佳策略低估了依赖性定价（英）

Working Paper Series Strike while the iron is hot – optimal monetary policy under state-dependent pricing Peter Karadi, Anton Nakov, Galo Nuño, Ernesto Pastén, Dominik Thaler Disclaimer: This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. No 3068 Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP) This paper contains research conducted within the network “Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network” (ChaMP). It consists of economists from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the national central banks (NCBs) of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). ChaMP is coordinated by a team chaired by Philipp Hartmann (ECB), and consisting of Diana Bonfim (Banco de Portugal), Margherita Bottero (Banca d’Italia), Emmanuel Dhyne (Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique) and Maria T. Valderrama (Oesterreichische Nationalbank), who are supported by Melina Papoutsi and Gonzalo Paz-Pardo (both ECB), 7 central bank advisers and 8 academic consultants. ChaMP seeks to revisit our knowledge of monetary transmission channels in the euro area in the context of unprecedented shocks, multiple ongoing structural changes and the extension of the monetary policy toolkit over the last decade and a half as well as the recent steep inflation wave and its reversal. More information is provided on its website. ECB Working Paper Series No 30681AbstractWe characterize optimal monetary policy under state-dependent pricing. Theframework gives rise to nonlinear inflation dynamics: The flexibility of the pricelevel increases after large shocks due to an endogenous rise in the frequency ofprice changes. In response to large cost-push shocks, optimal policy leverages thelower sacrifice ratio to curb inflation. When faced with total factor productivityshocks, an efficient disturbance, the optimal policy commits to strict price stability.The optimal long-run inflation rate is just above zero.JEL codes: E31, E32, E52Keywords: State-dependent pricing, large shocks, nonlinear Phillips curve, optimalmonetary policyECB Working Paper Series No 30682ECB Working Paper Series No 30682Non-Technical SummaryRecent global economic developments, particularly the surge in inflation followingthe COVID-19 pandemic, have presented significant challenges for central banks.Traditional models of inflation, which assume a linear and stable relationship betweeninflation and economic activity, have struggled to explain these developments. Thispaper addresses a key question: How should central banks adjust their monetarypolicies when the relationship between inflation and economic output becomes morecomplex, particularly during periods of large economic shocks?The paper argues that in periods of significant economic shocks – such as suddenincreases in costs – firms tend to change their prices more fre