高盛-中国对新房的需求将保持低位（英文）

In 2021, we first presented our estimates of Chinese demand for new urban nhousing through 2050. However, our earlier estimates did not account for the fact that investment demand in China could turn negative as owners sell vacant apartments, and that the 2015-18 government-led shanty-town redevelopment should result in fewer demolitions in subsequent years. In this note, we incorporate these two factors, along with the latest demographic trends. China’s falling population and slowing urbanization suggest decreasing ndemographic demand for housing, although declining family sizes provide a partial offset. We calculate that annual demographic demand in urban China will average only 4.1mn housing units per year in 2025-2030, compared to 9.4mn units per year in the 2010s. It is striking that China’s demographic demand for new urban housing likely halved within a decade. Decennial census data show that the quality of Chinese residential properties nhas improved significantly over the past decade. Part of the reason is the 2015-18 shanty-town redevelopment program, where the government helped finance and accelerate demolitions of run-down properties nationwide. Going forward, the government’s focus has shifted toward renovation rather than demolition. We estimate that the average demolition demand will drop from 4.7mn units per year in the 2010s to 2.7mn units per year in the 2020s. A combination of high savings rates, limited investment options, and rosy house nprice expectations led to strong investment demand for housing in the 2010s. Academic and industry research suggests that the home vacancy rate in urban China was around 20% in 2020 (significantly higher than the rate in the US and Japan). With house price expectations falling, we expect an annual average investment demand of -1.8mn units in 2025-2030, followed by -1.2mn units per year in the 2030s. In other words, holders of investment properties are likely to be net sellers (to owner-occupiers) for the foreseeable future. Taken together, China’s urban demand for new properties is likely to remain nslightly below 5mn units per year in the coming years, 75% below its peak of 20mn in 2017. Upside risks may originate from geographic mismatches (internal migration), whereas downside risks may stem from faster-than-expected divestment from owners of empty apartments. Barring major policy changes regarding urbanization and regional development, however, it is difficult to see Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Lisheng Wang +852-3966-4004 | lisheng.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Xinquan Chen +852-2978-2418 | xinquan.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Yuting Yang +852-2978-7283 | yuting.y.yang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Chelsea Song +852-2978-0106 | chelsea.song@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.Asia Economics Analyst China’s Demand for New Homes to Stay Low (Shan)16 Ju