UBS Equities-Copper _LatAm Production Who are winners laggards_ Allso...-116006189

ab17 June 2025Global ResearchCopperLatAm Production: Who are winners & laggards?Production from Chile & Peru recovering after weak start to 2025We track the monthly production from the copper mines in Chile & Peru as reported by the govt agencies. In Chile, production has started to recover in Mar/Apr after a weak start to the year with Escondida & Chuquicamata performing well; YTD production is now +3% (+59Kt). In Peru, production is also robust at +5% YTD (+42kt) driven by Las Bambas which is benefitting from operational stability as well as high grades & recovery, although Glencore's Antapaccay & Antamina are weak. Company highlights: AAL/ GLEN/ Teck/ ANTO soft in Apr; BHP to beat guidance(1) Collahuasi's production (Figure 21Colahuasi (4%) daily coper production, kt) has not picked up materially in April so there is still some downside risk to Anglo & GLEN's 2025 copper guidance (which assumes material lift in 2H); for Anglo, Quellavecco is up slightly & Los Bronces moderating (both broadly to plan), while Glencore's Antapaccay mine is weak (Figure 24Antapacay daily coper production, kt). (2) Escondida (Figure 6Escondida (10% consolidated) daily coper production, kt) is performing well and now tracking above the top end of BHP's guidance for FY25; BHP's Spence is in line. (3) QB2's production (Figure 18QB daily coper production, kt) dipped in April due to maintenance but Teck looks broadly on track to meet the revised 2025 guidance. (4) ANTO's production moderated slightly m/m (Figure 12Total Antofagasta daily coper production, kt); it is currently tracking slightly below 2025 guidance of 660-700kt. (5) FCX production at Cerro Verde (Figure 27Cero Verde daily coper production, kt) is -4% y/y (tracking slightly ahead of guidance of 1,090Mlbs for South America) while SCCO Peru (Figure 29Cuajone and Toquepala daily coper production, kt) is down -2% y/y, tracking slightly below 2025 guidance of broadly flat y/y. Figure 1: Chile & Peru copper production from key mines (YTD kt)Key owners202220232024% chge2024 YTD2025 YTDchge kt% chgeChileAprAprCodelco mines (ex-JVs)1,0811,3251,3290%381401205%EscondidaBHP 57.5%; RIO 30%8221,1011,27816%3944727720%SpenceBHP 100%1882492563%858945%CollahuasiAnglo 44%; GLEN 44%421573559-3%190117-73-38%Anglo SurAnglo 50.1%237255221-13%8470-14-17%Los PelambresANTO 60%2283113317%10798-9-8%CentinelaANTO 60%192242224-8%61751524%QB2Teck 60%764208223%585912%Other8731,1311,103-2%3333723912%Chile4,0505,2515,5075%1,6931,752593%PeruAprAprCuajone & ToquepalaSCC 100%2603844158%139137-2-2%AntaminaBHP 33.75%; GLEN 33.75%; Teck 22.5%3534354340%135119-16-12%Cerro VerdeFCX 53.6%347457449-2%145139-6-4%Las BambasMMG 62.5%1863023216%791355772%ToromochoChinalco 100%1942002063%56802443%AntapaccayGLEN 100%114173146-16%5028-22-45%ConstanciaHudbay 100%70107100-7%323200%QuellavecoAnglo 60%94322306-5%9810255%Other201365354-3%11111544%Peru1,8202,7462,7330%845887425%Source: Cochilco, Ministerio de Energias y Minas Peru, UBS Research; Note Codel