Deutsche Bank-Thematic Research Key themes for 2026-119168839

2025 13:36:15 GMT2025 13:36:15 GMT0Deutsche Bank Research | Key themes for 2026| December 2025Deutsche BankResearchKey themes for 2026December 2025Luke Templeman | Galina Pozdnyakova | Camilla Siazon | Stefan AbrudanIMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.1Deutsche Bank Research | Key themes for 2026 | December 2025Luke Templeman: Thematic StrategistLuke focusses on capital markets and long-term strategy. He has previously worked on both the buy-side and sell-side of private equity, investment banking, and asset management. Luke holds an MBA from London Business School, a Master of Commerce from Macquarie University, Sydney, and is a qualified CPA.Galina Pozdnyakova: Research AnalystGalina joined the Thematic Research team in 2021. She holds a bachelor’s degree in economics and a master degree in finance.Stefan Abrudan: Research AnalystStefan joined the Thematic Research team in 2025. He holds a bachelor’s degree in economics and previously worked in emerging markets sales.Camilla Siazon: Research AnalystCamilla Siazon is an Analyst on Deutsche Bank’s Macro and Thematic team in London. She holds a dual MA/MSc in International History from Columbia University and the London School of Economics, and a BA in History from Barnard College, Columbia University.Authors2Deutsche Bank Research | Key themes for 2026 | December 2025Themes for 2026: Geopolitics, macro, markets, corporates – 1/2GeopoliticsChina’s economy and society are more resilient than many thoughtA rapid US decline is exaggeratedMultilateralism is not dead. New alliances outside the US and China can spring up very quicklyEurope is stuck in the middle. It has difficult choices to make but can it make them?Hybrid warfare will increase and become normalisedNuclear weapons are back on the table. Drones are the future of warfareFurther drift to the fringes of the political left and right. Local politics to become more important than geopolitics in 2026The US-China relationship is deteriorating. There is little trust on both sides even if they do play along at times1Two crucial points of trade leverage for the US and China (critical minerals and chips) have quickly been weaponised 23456789Non-aligned powers (Saudi, India etc) taking advantage of a US vacuum to pursue an agenda that has been difficult in the past10The US economy is not in decline in the near termThere is lots of money around that can bail out many (but not all) problemsDemography is not the problem you thinkSovereign debt will result in unexpected volatility in markets but not a major crisisPrivate debt is becoming less problematicCentral banks will respond to stagflation fears (one way or the other)Growing AI-related productivity improvementsHyperscalers’ systemic economic risk appears limitedChinese economic resilienceThe end of easing cycles in key ec