IMF-自然银行依赖（英）

Natural Bank Reliance Hannah Winterberg WP/25/115 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 JUN © 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/115IMF Working Paper MCM Natural Bank Reliance Prepared by Hannah Winterberg* Authorized for distribution by Naomi Griffin June 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: The higher aggregate prevalence of loan over bond funding in Europe is not only driven by the well-documented differences in financial market settings but also strongly shaped by different firm characteristics. The European economy is more fragmented than the U.S. economy, and thus features a different firm distribution in terms of size and collateral availability. I estimate that if all European firms had access to a financial market like the U.S. market, their aggregate bond funding share would remain significantly smaller. This counterfactual suggests a limited potential for European corporate bond markets in the short and medium term. RECOMMENDED CITATION: : Winterberg, Hannah, 2025, “Natural Bank Reliance” IMF Working Paper WP/25/115 JEL Classification Numbers: E4, E5, F3, G0, G1, P1. Keywords: Corporate bond markets; bank reliance; firm size distribution; euro area. Author’s E-Mail Address:hwinterberg@imf.org WORKING PAPERS Natural Bank Reliance Prepared by Hannah Winterberg*1 *The author thanks Benedikt Ballensiefen, Reto Föllmi, Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Christian Keuschnigg, Michael Kogler, DanielRabetti (discussant), Angelo Ranaldo, Ghon Rhee (discussant), as well as conference participants at the Rimini Center forEconomic Analysis conference on recent developments in Economics, Econometrics and Finance (2022), the 29th Finance Forum(2022), the FMA conference (2022), the World Finance Conference (2022), the American Economic Associations meetings (2023,poster session) and the European Network for Research on Investment Conference on Investment and Competitiveness in aChanging World at the European Investment Bank (2023). This work was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation(grant number P1SGP1_188111).ContentsIntroduction3Data8Debt choice and a heterogeneous cross-section12Firm characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14Modeling choice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21Counterfactual analysis21Model description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21Equilibrium with