英文【Bernstein】中国互联网：融合——将美团评级下调至中性

17 June 2025China InternetChina Internet: The convergence - downgrading Meituan toMarket-PerformRobin Zhu+852 2123 2659robin.zhu@bernsteinsg.comCharles Gou+852 2123 2618charles.gou@bernsteinsg.comMin-Joo Kang+852 2123 2644minjoo.kang@bernsteinsg.comCharlie Peng+81 3 6777 6993charlie.peng@bernsteinsg.comThe convergence of domestic competition. This note represents our latest quarterlylook back at China Internet reporting, competitive trends across the key verticals,and reassessing risk-reward across our stock coverage. Since the start of May, stockperformance in the sector has largely been gaming and media good, real economy bad.JD is moving to manage unit food delivery losses, as expected, but… BetweenMeituan declaring “whatever it takes”, provincial governments scaling back applianceincentives, and JD scaling back merchant incentives, the last few weeks have brought somerelief for Meituan’s shares. But Alibaba and JD using food delivery to drive traffic growthdrags Meituan into the 6-7 way scrap that is e-commerce. JD’s move into travel also feelssymptomatic of the convergence of platform competition, though the call option argumentfor its shares might apply again at some point… from bargain-basement valuations.Downgrading Meituan to Market-Perform (PT HK$150). We expect Meituan’sleadership in food delivery to ultimately hold: it’s hard for us to see Alibaba or JD to matchMeituan’s depth in ground ops. But a three-player market dilutes network density, andbrings competitive instability. Plateauing penetration also argues for a lower food deliverymultiple. Our concerns about Meituan’s appetite for a multi-front war overseas coincideswith growing signs of convergent competition amongst the top global food deliveryplatforms. The UAE won’t be easy. Brazil could be another expensive case of jam tomorrow.Why is 14-15x 2026E PE the right multiple for one of the best AI plays globally?Tencent remains our top long-term pick in the China Internet sector. Investors remainfocused on the eventual gaming revenue slowdown, but Delta Force continues to prosper,and Valorant mobile should do well too. Video Accounts ad load growth and search gainsare driving 20% ads revenues growth, and have long runways to keep delivering. Longerterm, Tencent (via the Mini Program ecosystem) will probably be one of only a handful ofcompanies globally that can deliver cross-ecosystem agentic AI services.Buy NetEase when NetEase buys NetEase, but… NetEase’s rally post Q1 triggers ourmental heuristic around video gaming stocks… that the best times to buy is when sentimentis depressed, buybacks accelerate, and pipeline visibility improves. We have mixed feelingsabout NetEase’s pipeline before Ananta. That said, video gaming likely remains a safe havenfor investors amid uncertain macro and geopolitics. Between easier upcoming billingscomps, the potential for AI-related gains, and possible changes related to iOS platformfees, we remain (somewhat uncomfortably) Outperform on NetEase.To