BBVA2025年中国经济展望-英文版

China EconomicOutlookJUNE 2025Global Economic Outlookp. 3Main messages Growth outlookProtectionism and uncertainty will weigh on economic activity. Growth will likely slow more than previously anticipated in the US, but not necessarily in China and the Eurozone. In the former, lower-than-expected US tariffs back an upward revision of growth forecasts. In the latter, the impact of expected US tariffs will likely be mitigated by fiscal spending, mainly in defense. Inflation and rates outlookTariffs are likely to push US inflation higher, prompting the Fed to keep rates unchanged for longer. Monetary easing could resume by the end of 2025 if price pressures prove transitory. The rate-cutting cycle could be over, or at least near to the end, in the Eurozone, and remains underway in China. RisksLingering policy uncertainty and rising US risk premium are important sources of concern. Tariff risks have augmented, but now appear more balanced.Economic uncertaintyUS tariffs have risen sharply. Although levies on China are now around 30%, lower than the expected 60% and well below the post-“Liberation Day” peak of 145%, they remain high and the uncertainty about where they will eventually settle is a persistent source of risk. In this context, and given prospects of large fiscal deficits, the US premium risk has risen. Growth remains resilient and inflation has eased, despite early signs of tariff-related deterioration. p. 4Global economy under pressure by US policies High US tariffs; although lower on China, they are larger than assumed on others, and a greater source of uncertainty Resilient growth; confidence deteriorated, but impact of tariffs on activity and inflation is limited, so farLarger US risk amid increasing concerns on fiscal accounts and uncertainty on US policiesWeaker USD, higher long term yields, and a cautious Fed; policy rates fell further in China and Europep. 5Uncertainty remains in place BBVA RESEARCH ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY INDEX (*)(28-DAY MOVING AVERAGE, AVERAGE SINCE 2017 EQUALS TO ZERO )(*) Last available data: June 4, 2025Source: BBVA Research.01234520-Jan27-Jan3-Feb10-Feb17-Feb24-Feb3-Mar10-Mar17-Mar24-Mar31-Mar7-Apr14-Apr21-Apr28-Apr5-May12-May19-May26-May2-Junnationalemergencyover migrationfentanyl tariffson CAN, MEX, and CHN25% tariffson steel andaluminumfentanyltariffs on CHNraised to 20%25% tariffson vehiclesreciprocal tariffsannouncedTrump threatensto fire Powell;few days laterhe walks backreciprocal tariffsover 10% paused;US-CHN tariffescalationtrade deals withUK and then with CHN;30% tariffs on the latterUS Houseaprovesfiscal billlegaldisputeovertariffs50%tariffs onsteel andaluminum p. 6US tariffs have risen sharply and erratically After some de-escalation, US tariffs rose again in late May/25, with levies on steel and aluminum reaching 50%; trade negotiations continue, and disputes over the legal validity of the tariffs remain unresolvedUS TARIFFS: ESTIMATED INCREASE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2025 UNTIL JUNE 9, 20