Deutsche Bank-DBDaily ISM missed; DBs latest World Outlook Carpe diem f...

T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaT2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDistributed on: 02/06/2025 21:55:09 GMTDistributed on: 02/06/2025 21:55:09 GMT3 June 2025Deutsche BankResearch Global Economics DBDaily Date ISM missed; DB's latest World Outlook: Carpe diem for Europe?ISM missed; DB's latest World Outlook: Carpe diem for Europe?***Webinar: Join DB's European sales, trading and research teams for an ECB preview. 12:30 London time today, register here. USA: ISM manufacturing (May): Down 0.2pts to 48.5, below mkt.USA: Manufacturing PMI (May): Revised down 0.3pts to 52.0.EMU: Manufacturing PMI (May): Confirmed at 49.4pts. JPN: Capital spending (Q1): Up 6.4% yoy, above mkt.JPN: Manufacturing PMI (May): Revised up 0.4pts to 49.4. US equities were stronger Monday, S&P up 0.4%, tech did better, NASDAQ up 0.7%. The gains come despite renewed tensions on trade negotiations, after China's Commerce Ministry said the US had "seriously undermined" the recent agreement reached in Geneva in mid May. US10y yields up 4bps to 4.44%. US manufacturing ISM missed, down 0.2pts to 48.5 in May, consensus looked for a 0.8pt rise. In the details, small improvements in new orders and employment, and prices paid close to expectations. Manufacturing imports index at lowest level since 2009, reflecting pre-tariff front-loading and clouding the read-through for underlying activity. Export orders also fell to 5yr low. Among respondent anecdotes: "the administration’s tariffs alone have created supply chain disruptions rivaling that of COVID-19".US manufacturing PMI revised down 0.3pts to 52.0 in final read for May, still up 1.8pts from April. Eurozone manufacturing PMI unchanged from preliminary read at 49.4 in final read for May, up 0.4pts from April. Fed's Logan: Monetary policy is "well positioned to wait", risks are "balanced", overall economy has been "resilient" despite uncertainty. China's manufacturing PMI improved modestly by 0.5ppts to 49.5 in May, in line with consensus, helped by trade war de-escalation, while non manufacturing missed, dropping by 0.1ppt to 50.3. Yi Xiong with key charts summarizing the details.Figure 1: Market summaryEquitiesFX S&P5005935.940.4% EURUSD 1.14400.22% Stoxx600547.92-0.1% USDJPY142.680.94% FTSE8774.260.0% GBPUSD 1.35440.10% TOPIX2777.29-0.9% USDCAD 1.3714-0.13% CSI3003840.23-0.5% AUDUSD 0.64920.95% VIX18.36-0.21 NZDUSD 0.60351.21%DebtCommodities UST104.440.04 Oil65.073.6% UST23.940.04 Gold3381.611.0% SFR43.830.02 CRB294.931.5% Copper485.853.9%Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance, L.P.Phil OdonaghoeEconomist+61-2-8258-1606Deutsche Bank AG/SydneyIMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.3 June 2025DBDailyPage 2Deutsche Bank AG/SydneyDB World Outlook. Jim Reid and David Folkerts-Landau present DB's latest update of global views. US growth is holding up better than feared, but expect a