世界银行-正规贷款能提升中小企业绩效吗？Meta分析的关键要点（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11140Do Formal Loans Boost SME Performance? Key Takeaways from a Meta-AnalysisMiriam BruhnJohan Andrey Ortega HernandezClaudia Ruiz OrtegaDevelopment Economics Development Research GroupJune 2025 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11140This paper conducts a meta-analysis of 24 studies evaluating the impact of formal loans on small and medium-sized enterprise performance. Using a Bayesian hierarchical model, the paper estimates that formal loans increase small and medium-sized enterprise employment by 12 percent, sales by 18.3 percent, and profits by 17.6 percent. Subgroup analyses show that the effects of credit on employment are larger when loans are issued by public rather than private banks, and the effects are broadly similar across firm size, country income levels, and guarantee structures. The larger impact of public bank loans suggests that private lenders’ profit-maximizing incentives may not always align with providing funds to the most credit-constrained firms that have the highest returns to capital.This paper is a product of the Development Research Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at mbruhn@worldbank.org and cruizortega@worldbank.org. Do Formal Loans Boost SME Performance? Key Takeaways from a Meta-Analysis Miriam Bruhn, Johan Andrey Ortega Hernandez, Claudia Ruiz Ortega* JEL Classification: G21, G28, O12, O16 Keywords: bank loans; SMEs; job creation * Miriam Bruhn: DECFP, The World Bank, mbruhn@worldbank.org (corresponding author). Johan Andrey Ortega Hernandez: DECFP, The World Bank, jortegahernandez@worldbank.org. Claudia Ruiz Ortega: DECFP, The World Bank, cruizortega@worldbank.org. We are thankful for the feedback we received from David McKenzie and Rachael Meager. All errors are our own.2 1. Introduction Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) represent over 90% of businesses and provide two-thirds