英文【Bernstein】欧洲生物制药：全球疫苗入门：预防永远是最好的药物

PRIMER4 June 2025European BiopharmaceuticalsGlobal Vaccines Primer: prevention is always the best medicineJustin Smith+44 20 7762 5899justin.smith@bernsteinsg.comFlorent Cespedes+33 1 42 13 42 49florent.cespedes@bernsteinsg.comCourtney Breen+1 917 344 8407courtney.breen@bernsteinsg.comWoody Polglase+44 207 170 5123woody.polglase@bernsteinsg.comWe expect vaccines to remain the biopharma industry segment with the highest entry barriersand strongest value proposition. We thus project a vaccines industry sales CAGR (24-34e) of4%. In our view the best stock market exposure to this oligopoly is via Sanofi and GSK.Vaccines industry growth: what are the drivers and prospects? We project globalvaccines sales for the oligopoly (GSK, SAN, MRK, PFE, MRNA) of $68bn in 2034 fora CAGR (24-34e) of 4%. Drivers should include global population growth, increasingaccess to healthcare, demographics and rising awareness of the benefits of preventingdiseases. We expect this growth to be low risk as nearly two thirds should be driven by fourfranchises which are already well entrenched (influenza, cancer (HPV), lung (RSV) and brain(meningitis)). Vaccines are also long duration assets as there is no patent risk. Althoughwe project the corresponding EU/US large cap pharma (ex vaccines) CAGR to also be 4%,this has a higher risk profile. In our view, pharma growth is more dependent on pipelineapprovals, is more sensitive to competition, technological disruption and patent expiries.We also believe that vaccines are far more cost-effective than drugs.Why are the entry barriers in vaccines so high? 1/ Regulations: considering thatvaccines are given to healthy individuals their side effect risks have to be much lower thanfor pharmaceuticals. Hence, the human trials required to secure regulatory approvals ofvaccines typically involve alot more patients than for drugs and thus are more expensiveto run. We also believe that the post approval surveillance requirements for vaccines arevery demanding 2/ Manufacturing: our channel checks indicate that a new vaccines plantcan require ca. $300m of ‘up-front’ capital and take at least 4-6 years to build. Productionprocesses for vaccines at commercial scale are also long and complicated (eg ultra-sterileconditions are paramount) and suitably qualified workers aren’t plentiful 3/ Intellectualproperty: considering the above, unlike pharmaceuticals, the sales of vaccines don’tdecline post patent expiry. Hence, there are examples in our coverage universe of vaccineswhich are still growing in their third or fourth decade post launch (helped by life cyclemanagement such as more strains covered).Why are we bullish on Sanofi (O) and GSK (O) ? In our view Sanofi offers above average,low risk EPS growth. We also expect improving visibility on the refocused, pipeline (whereexpectations are low) to alleviate concerns about portfolio concentration risk. This inturn should expand the PE26 of 10x. ForGSK, our 2031 sales forecast is double-digitpercentage