国际清算银行-货币政策和收入不平等：通货膨胀依赖性（英）

BIS Working Papers No 1271 Monetary policy and earnings inequality: inflation dependencies by Jaanika Meriküll and Matthias Rottner Monetary and Economic Department June 2025 JEL classification: E52, D31, J31, J63 Keywords: monetary policy, labour income inequality, inflation, state dependency, earnings heterogeneity channel, aggregate MPC BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISSN 1682-7678 (online) Monetary Policy and Earnings Inequality:Inflation Dependencies∗Jaanika Merik¨ullEesti PankUniversity of TartuMatthias RottnerBank for International SettlementsDeutsche BundesbankJune 3, 2025AbstractThis paper studies the distributional effects of monetary policy and its dependenceon inflation. We document a novel dependency in the earnings heterogeneity chan-nel of monetary policy using high-frequency, administrative tax data from eurozonemember Estonia. Monetary policy shocks substantially influence earnings inequal-ity during high-inflation periods, with weaker effects during low-inflation periods.Extending our dataset with granular MPC estimates, we show that earnings hetero-geneity amplifies the aggregate MPC and consumption response. In high-inflationperiods, consumption and inequality respond more, even though the aggregate MPCmay be lower. We rationalise our findings with a nonlinear tractable HANK modelfeaturing inflation dependencies.Keywords: Monetary policy, labour income inequality, inflation, state dependency,earnings heterogeneity channel, aggregate MPCJEL classification: E52, D31, J31, J63∗Emails: jaanika.merikyll@eestipank.ee, matthias.rottner@bis.org. We thank Christian Matthes, Se-bastian Rast, Jiri Slacalek, our discussants Nicolas Gavoille, Aino Silvo, and seminar participants atthe ESCB Research Cluster on Monetary Economics, the ESCB ChAMP Research Network, the ESCBHousehold Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) Network, the ESCB Heads of Research meeting, theBank for International Settlements, Meeting of the European Economic Association 2024, the DeutscheBundesbank, 12th Meeting of the Nordic Econometric Network, Eesti Pank and the 6th Baltic EconomicConference. We also thank Ang´elica Dominguez Cardoza for excellent research assistance. The views inthis paper are solely those of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of EestiPank, the Bank for International Settlements, the Deutsche Bundesbank, or the