Incrementum-月度黄金指南针——2025年6月

Ronald-Peter StöferleMark J. ValekMonthly Gold CompassJune 20252In Our Partners We Trust 3Table of Contents:1. Gold2. Silver3. Miner4. Macro5. Long Term Charts6. Proprietary Models41. Gold“I view gold as the primary global currency. It is the only currency, along with silver, that does not require a counterparty signature.”Alan Greenspan5Source: LSEG (as of 05/31/2025), Incrementum AGGold Performance in Major Currencies, 2000–2025 YTDYearUSDEURGBPAUDCADCNYJPYCHFINRAverage2000-5.3%1.2%2.0%11.3%-1.9%-5.4%5.8%-4.2%1.4%0.6%20012.4%8.3%5.3%11.4%8.8%2.4%18.0%5.5%5.8%7.6%200224.4%5.6%12.2%13.3%22.9%24.4%12.2%3.5%23.7%15.8%200319.6%-0.2%8.0%-10.7%-1.3%19.6%8.1%7.4%13.9%7.2%20045.6%-1.9%-1.7%1.5%-2.0%5.6%0.8%-3.1%0.1%0.5%200518.1%35.1%31.6%25.9%14.1%15.1%35.9%36.3%22.8%26.1%200623.0%10.4%8.1%14.3%23.3%19.0%24.2%14.1%20.7%17.5%200730.9%18.5%29.2%18.0%12.0%22.5%22.5%21.8%16.9%21.4%20085.4%10.0%43.1%30.5%28.7%-1.5%-14.2%-0.8%30.0%14.6%200924.8%21.8%12.9%-1.6%7.9%24.8%27.9%21.1%19.2%17.6%201029.5%38.6%34.2%13.6%22.8%25.1%13.2%16.8%24.8%24.3%201110.2%13.9%10.6%10.3%12.7%5.2%4.5%10.7%30.7%12.1%20127.1%5.0%2.5%5.3%4.2%6.0%20.7%4.5%11.1%7.4%2013-28.0%-30.9%-29.4%-16.1%-23.0%-30.1%-12.6%-29.8%-19.1%-24.3%2014-1.8%11.6%4.4%7.3%7.5%0.7%11.6%9.4%0.2%5.6%2015-10.4%-0.1%-5.3%0.6%6.8%-6.2%-9.9%-9.7%-5.9%-4.5%20168.5%12.1%29.6%9.6%5.3%16.1%5.4%10.3%11.4%12.0%201713.1%-0.9%3.3%4.6%5.9%6.0%9.0%8.3%6.3%6.2%2018-1.5%3.0%4.3%8.9%6.8%4.1%-4.2%-0.8%7.3%3.1%201918.3%21.0%13.7%18.8%12.6%19.7%17.2%16.6%21.3%17.7%202025.0%14.8%21.3%14.1%22.6%17.2%18.8%14.3%28.0%19.6%2021-3.6%3.6%-2.6%2.2%-4.3%-6.1%7.5%-0.6%-1.7%-0.6%2022-0.2%6.0%11.6%6.3%7.0%8.3%13.7%1.1%10.8%7.2%202313.1%9.7%7.4%13.1%10.5%16.3%21.6%2.9%13.7%12.0%202427.2%35.6%29.4%40.0%38.1%30.8%41.7%37.1%30.8%34.5%2025 YTD25.4%14.4%16.5%20.6%19.8%23.6%14.9%13.7%25.3%19.3%CAGR10.1%9.6%10.8%10.1%9.8%9.5%11.6%7.2%13.0%10.2%6Source: LSEG, Incrementum AGJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec200010.17%10.07%10.30%10.43%10.49%10.24%10.48%10.51%10.60%10.79%10.74%10.75%200110.89%10.91%11.11%11.05%11.05%11.01%11.12%11.03%10.77%11.02%11.15%11.12%200211.10%10.90%10.85%10.80%10.57%10.79%11.00%10.90%10.77%10.91%10.93%10.56%200310.30%10.60%10.82%10.83%10.51%10.82%10.74%10.50%10.41%10.46%10.33%10.15%200410.35%10.47%10.13%10.68%10.62%10.68%10.76%10.56%10.50%10.41%10.18%10.38%200510.62%10.50%10.64%10.60%10.88%10.69%10.81%10.79%10.41%10.51%10.22%10.00%20069.50%9.62%9.45%8.83%8.97%9.29%9.13%9.25%9.56%9.53%9.18%9.33%20079.22%9.11%9.22%9.13%9.33%9.48%9.40%9.35%8.78%8.40%8.55%8.20%20087.59%7.32%7.74%8.10%8.02%7.79%7.91%8.57%8.31%9.57%8.82%8.38%20098.06%7.98%8.22%8.50%7.87%8.29%8.13%8.21%7.85%7.64%6.85%7.39%20107.53%7.34%7.41%7.04%6.86%6.75%7.15%6.80%6.49%6.25%6.15%6.00%20116.51%6.12%6.06%5.42%5.60%5.81%5.22%4.38%5.30%4.92%4.81%5.70%20124.90%5.13%5.29%5.35%5.91%5.75%5.71%5.36%5.01%5.29%5.35%5.59%20135.69%6.17%6.12%6.85%7.46%8.58%8.00%7.57%8.09%8.18%8.76%9.19%20148.96%8.41%8.79%8.80%9.19%8.67%9.09%9.12%9.84%10.22%10.37%10.31%20159.54%10.23%1